AZERBAIJAN MAKES PREPARATIONS FOR "LIBERATION MISSION"
by Victor Myasnikov
Translated by A. Ignatkin
Agency WPS
Defense And Security (Russia)
Source: Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, No 32, September 21 – 27, 2007, p. 2
September 26, 2007 Wednesday
It hopes to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem before the 2016
Olympic Games
WILL THERE BE A WAR BETWEEN ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN?; Azerbaijan makes
threatening statements. Armenian specialists dismiss them as a bluff
and point out that neither Europe nor the United States wants a war
in the region they are getting oil and gas from.
"I’ve said on more than one occasion already that our patience is not
limitless," President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, told Lithuanian
correspondents on September 13. "There must be some framework,
including time limits, to the negotiations. Once we are convinced
that they are pointless, we may resort to restoring territorial
integrity by all means available, including the military, and we
admit it openly. We should be ready for it and we will be ready."
Aliyev emphasized that the Azerbaijani military budget equalled all of
the Armenian state budget. Baku applies for hosting the 2016 Olympic
Games, and Aliyev is convinced that the conflict over Karabakh will
be settled by then – "by peaceful means or otherwise."
"Otherwise" stands for war, of course.
The parliament of Azerbaijan is about to discuss and adopt the new
military doctrine. Experts say that the document will identify Armenia
as an enemy and one of the worst threats to security of Azerbaijan.
"Azerbaijan does not want to go to war but Armenia seized 20% of our
lands and would not give them back. The situation being what it is,
we retain the right to liberate them by sheer strength of arms and no
foreign state or international organization will condemn us for it,"
Eldar Sabiroglu of the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry Press Service said.
The annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia may provide Baku with
a casus belli. Political observer Vugar Siedov, living in Hungary
nowadays, claims that this step on Armenia’s part will untie the hands
of Azerbaijan and give it a legitimate cause to launch an offensive.
As an oil exporter to Europe and a transit country, Azerbaijan is
better off financially and enjoys certain support from the West. Baku
does not hesitate to flex its newly obtained muscles or remind the
rest of the world of the leverage it has.
The situation on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border meanwhile deteriorated
over the last several months. According to the Azerbaijani Defense
Ministry, Armenian troops violated the truce on 256 occasions between
January and August this year. Eleven servicemen of the Azerbaijani
regular army were killed in these skirmishes, ten wounded. 2006 was
marginally more tranquil: 220 violations of the truce and deaths of
fourteen Azerbaijanis.
Border skirmishes occur on a daily bases, usually at several locations
at once. Two Azerbaijani servicemen were killed in early September. The
military claims that fire was returned and that several Armenians
were killed.
The Armenians claim in their turn that the provocations are engineered
by the Azerbaijanis and that skirmishes are actually fewer than Baku
lets on. Yerevan and Stepanakert (the capital of the self-proclaimed
Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh) never release any information on
their losses.
The Azerbaijan Armed Forces are 75,000 men strong, the Armenian nearly
45,000 men. The Azerbaijani command claims that the regular army is
properly trained and equipped with sophisticated military hardware. The
military budget of Azerbaijan reached $1.1 billion in 2007. In 2006,
Azerbaijan bought 17 tanks and armored personnel carriers, 17 aircraft,
and 13 artillery pieces from the Ukraine alone.
Baku counts on support from the West and on its understanding.
Yerevan in its turn recently found an ally nearby – Iran. Tehran has
been keeping an eye on contacts between Azerbaijan and the United
States and, more broadly, with NATO. It is upset that Baku may use
the territory of Azerbaijan available as a bridgehead for an attack
on the Iranian nuclear sites. Hence its rapprochement with Yerevan.
On the other hand, Iran is not exactly helpless because the road
to the Nakhichevan runs across Iranian territory. Close the route,
and Nakhichevan will succumb to an economic crisis.
Claiming all the time that the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict does not
concern it, Iran signed an accord with Armenia on the construction
of a hydroelectric power plant on the Araks River. The catch is,
Azerbaijan regards this territory as belonging to it, illegally seized
by Armenia. The energy minister of Iran said the other day that
unless the problem of the occupied lands is solved soon (the lands
that belonged to Azerbaijan, not Karabakh as such), construction of
the hydroelectric power plant will begin no matter what.
Baku in the meantime is advancing contacts and cooperation
with Washington. The US Department of State actively supports
Azerbaijani leaders’ demands for the immediate release of the occupied
territories. The Armenian lobby was quite strong in Washington once,
but Armenia is friends with Iran now and that put it on the other
side of the fence. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, built first
and foremost in the interests of the United States, is playing its
part too.
Armenian experts in the meantime are convinced that there will be no
war. "Neither Europe nor the United States need a war in this region,"
political scientist Levon Melik-Shahnazarjan said.
"Azerbaijan knows that the decision to launch an offensive on
its part will result in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and the
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum gas pipelines going up in flames." The West needs
oil and gas delivered to it on schedule. It does not want their prices
to spiral.
Melik-Shahnazarjan suspects that the Caspian oil fields will
be depleted by 2025 and that this is precisely when some radical
solutions to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem may be embarked on. In any
event, no war in the region will remain local for long. "The situation
being what it is, I’m not even sure that Azerbaijan will survive as
a sovereign state," Melik-Shahnazarjan said.
The situation seems to be improving some, assisted by the visit
of chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group to Baku. Yuri Merzlyakov of
Russia reiterated that Moscow regards Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of
Azerbaijan. Baku is so elated that it does not even rule out the
possibility of a meeting between presidents. The war seems a less
immediate prospect.