ARMENIA: FORMER PRESIDENT LASHES OUT AT INCUMBENT ADMINISTRATION
Marianna Grigoryan

EurasiaNet, NY
Oct 2 2007

A speech by former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrossian, coupled
with speculation about his possible candidacy in the 2008 presidential
elections, has roiled Armenia’s political waters.

On September 21, the 16th anniversary of Armenia’s independence,
Ter-Petrossian broke nearly a decade of public silence to give a
harsh assessment of President Robert Kocharian’s administration. The
former Armenian leader, who oversaw the country’s difficult transition
immediately following the 1991 Soviet collapse, said Armenia is run by
"a corrupt, criminal regime, whose relations are governed not by laws,
not by the will of the people, not by political dialogue, but by the
rules of the underworld."

Members of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, as well as
Kocharian, denounced Ter-Petrossian’s speech, with the president
implying that it would be better for the 62-year-old former chief
executive to maintain a dignified silence in retirement. The speech
was delivered during an independence celebration organized by
Ter-Petrossian’s Armenian National Movement Party.

Although most major opposition parties have welcomed Ter-Petrossian’s
comments for potentially "bringing possible qualitative changes"
to Armenian politics, no clear idea exists as to his next step.

Ter-Petrossian himself has said that he is still "studying" the
situation, adding that his choices "cannot be guided by emotions."

Many analysts, however, think he could emerge as the main rival to
incumbent Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian in next year’s presidential
election. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. When he
resigned the presidency in 1998, Ter-Petrossian stated that he would
return to national politics if "the people asked him."

"The first president enjoys great prestige and has many years’
experience. By entering politics, he will make the [2008 presidential]
election contest hotter," commented political analyst Stepan Safarian,
a member of the opposition Heritage Party.

After years of refraining from making any public statement or attending
any public event, Ter-Petrossian’s political comeback first became
a topic of discussion this summer, after a series of visits by the
ex-president to Armenian regions. "The public has experienced a deep
disillusionment with almost all opposition leaders especially after
the latest parliamentary elections," said Union of Political Analysts
Chairman Dr. Hmayak Hovhannisian. "[A]gainst this backdrop, the first
president’s return was well-calculated. . . [it] is an expected event
and promises a big success."

Not surprisingly given his past, the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh is
surfacing as a lightening rod for the Ter-Petrossian camp. On the
former president’s watch, Armenia gained control of the disputed
territory after a six-year conflict with Azerbaijan. Ter-Petrossian’s
resignation was linked closely to a call that he made in 1998 for
Armenia to make concessions to Azerbaijan in order to secure a Karabakh
peace settlement. In his September 21 speech, Ter-Petrossian termed the
ongoing lack of a settlement with Azerbaijan "the greatest offense"
of the Kocharian administration. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive].

"If you follow Azerbaijan’s reactions, then you will see that their
position is growing tougher. From now on, they will not agree to
any compromise," he said. "I don’t know what it is possible to do
to get out of this situation. But I repeat, I don’t consider this
situation hopeless yet. It is possible to try to get back to [being]
normal countries."

According to some analysts, the dismal outlook for negotiations with
Azerbaijan means that options for resolving the question of Karabakh’s
status will feature prominently in the upcoming presidential election.

"If you remember, during the previous presidential elections Kocharian
was forgiven for vote rigging, since, at that time, he promised to
solve the Karabakh problem," said Safarian, who describes the issue
as "a focal point" for next year’s campaign. A bill introduced
to parliament by the Heritage Party that would have recognized
Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent country failed in late August,
however.

Aside from compromise on Karabakh, Ter-Petrossian has also called for
an overhaul of the judicial system and of law-enforcement agencies
in an effort to curb politically motivated prosecutions and rampant
corruption.

Members of the governing Republican Party, however, take a dim view
of the former president’s comments. A recent news program broadcast
by pro-government Armenian Public Television derided Ter-Petrossian’s
criticism and showed archival footage of the "cold and dark years"
of the mid-1990s under his administration.

Kocharian himself has not given any public sign that Ter-Petrossian’s
verbal attack created cause for reflection.

In a September 25 media briefing on Armenia’s IT sector, Kocharian,
who served as prime minister under Ter-Petrossian before replacing
him as president, noted that if he decides to re-enter politics,
the former Armenian leader will turn into an "ordinary opposition
figure with all the ensuing consequences."

"[W]e will have to remind [Armenians] of many things …" he added.

Pointing to the country’s high economic growth rates, Kocharian also
took issue with Ter-Petrossian’s statement. "The most effective reforms
are being carried out in Armenia, and if these assessments were true,
we would never have had such achievements," the incumbent said.

While welcoming Ter-Petrossian as a potential counter-weight to
Prime Minister Sarkisian, the opposition is divided over the former
president’s chances for success in the 2008 polls.

"Levon Ter-Petrossian has no prospect, but it is my big wish to see
him nominated, so that the people and not he himself will put an end
once and for all to his power, ambitions and alleged popularity,"
National Democratic Party Chairman Shavarsh Kocharian told EurasiaNet.

Aram Sarkisian, the Hanrapetutiun (Republic) Party leader, predicted
victory if Ter-Petrossian decides to campaign. "The first president
is a political figure who weighs a decision a hundred times and makes
it only once… if Ter-Petrossian makes a decision to participate in
the election campaign, it will mean that he will win by all means.

Otherwise, he will not make that decision," Sarkisian said.

Editor’s Note: Marianna Grigoryan is a reporter for the online
independent ArmeniaNow weekly in Yerevan.