ARMENIAN EX-PRESIDENT BREAKS LONG SILENCE, SIGNALS COMEBACK
By Emil Danielyan

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Oct 2 2007

Levon Ter-Petrosian, Armenia’s former president acclaimed in the West
for his conciliatory stance on the Karabakh conflict, has rocked the
domestic political arena with his first public speech in nearly a
decade. Addressing hundreds of supporters in Yerevan on September
21, he described the current Armenian leadership as "corrupt and
criminal" and called for its ouster. The blistering attack was a
further indication that he is likely to contest the presidential
election due early next year.

Ter-Petrosian has kept an extremely low profile ever since he was
forced to resign in February 1998 by his key cabinet members, notably
then-prime minister Robert Kocharian, for advocating what they saw
as a "defeatist" international peace plan on Karabakh. The plan, put
forward by the OSCE Minsk Group, envisaged a phased settlement of the
conflict with Azerbaijan and would indefinitely delay agreement on
the status of the disputed territory. Kocharian and other hardliners
found the proposed peace accord too risky and demanded a "package"
deal that would recognize continued Armenian control over Karabakh.

In his speech, Ter-Petrosian called the unresolved state of the
Karabakh dispute "the greatest crime" committed by the ruling
regime over the past decade. He reaffirmed his belief that Armenia’s
security and sustainable economic development are contingent on the
normalization of the country’s relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

However, Ter-Petrosian did not come up with any formulas for Karabakh
peace, saying that he does not know how the latest impasse in
Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks can be overcome.

The 62-year-old, who led Armenia to independence from the Soviet Union,
also denounced the Kocharian administration as an "institutionalized
mafia-style regime that has plunged us into the ranks of third world
counties." He accused it of rigging elections, abusing human and
civil rights, illegally controlling courts, and extorting bribes from
leading Armenian businessmen.

Kocharian, who succeeded Ter-Petrosian as president and is now
completing his second and final term in office, was quick to rebut
the accusations, speaking to journalists on September 25. Kocharian
described Armenia as "one of the fastest developing countries in the
world," pointing to its robust economic growth, which has averaged 13%
since 2002 despite the continuing Azerbaijani and Turkish economic
blockades. "I became prime minister of Armenia in March 1997 and
inherited a $300 million [state] budget … Next year, Armenia will
have a budget worth about $2.5 billion," he said.

Kocharian went on to warn that his predecessor will become an "ordinary
opposition figure" and face "all the consequences stemming from
that" should he join the unfolding presidential race. He specifically
threatened to "remind" Armenians of the severe socioeconomic hardship
that they had suffered following the Soviet collapse and the outbreak
of the war with Azerbaijan. Throughout his presidency Kocharian has
exploited painful popular memories of the 1990s, which many analysts
view as the main obstacle of Ter-Petrosian’s return to power.

The reclusive ex-president himself indicated in his speech that he
is not sure he is popular enough to make a strong showing in the
upcoming election. He complained in particular that many Armenians
still do not understand the importance of Karabakh peace.

Ter-Petrosian’s political allies are more sanguine in that regard,
saying that he can capitalize on his international stature and what
they see as widespread popular dislike of the government.

Furthermore, they claim that he is the only politician capable
of defeating the presumed election favorite, Prime Minister Serge
Sarkisian, and have been trying to muster broad-based opposition
support for his presidential run.

However, most of the other major opposition forces have refrained
from throwing their weight behind Ter-Petrosian so far. Some of
their leaders pointed out last week that Ter-Petrosian himself rigged
elections and bullied his political opponents when he was in power
from 1990 to 1998. They recalled his decision in September 1996 to
send tanks to the streets of Yerevan to enforce the official results
of a reputedly fraudulent presidential election that gave him a second
five-year term.

Meanwhile, Sarkisian and his Republican Party, which swept to a
landslide victory in the recent parliamentary elections, claim to be
untroubled by the prospect of being challenged by Ter-Petrosian.

Whether this is really the case is unclear, though. Far more certain
is the fact that Ter-Petrosian’s comeback would add an element of
unpredictability to the 2008 election and perhaps reverse growing
public apathy about politics. That could, in turn, complicate
government attempts to rig the vote.

Even the ex-president’s most bitter opponent, the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (ARF, also known as the Dashnak Party),
has welcomed his possible participation in the presidential ballot,
saying that it will spur a healthy political debate on Karabakh,
relations with Turkey and other key issues. The ARF, which is
particularly influential in the worldwide Armenian Diaspora, had been
controversially banned and saw dozens of its activists imprisoned on
terrorism and coup charges during Ter-Petrosian’s rule. The nationalist
party was re-legalized immediately after Kocharian’s rise to power
and has since been represented in his governments. It has pointedly
refused to endorse Sarkisian for the Armenian presidency and intends
to nominate its own presidential candidate instead.

This was probably the reason why, on September 29, Ter-Petrosian paid
a sensational visit to the ARF headquarters in Yerevan and met with
two top party leaders (both of whom were jailed by him in 1995). A
short statement by the ARF said the talks focused on "issues related
to the forthcoming presidential elections." "Both sides stressed the
need for a politico-ideological debate," it added. The very fact of
such a meeting was a measure of just how intriguing political life
in Armenia is becoming these days.

(A1plus.am, September 29; Aravot, September 26; Armenian Public
Television, September 25; Haykakan Zhamanak, September 22)