THE PECULIARITIES OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Armen Tsatouryan
Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia
Oct 3 2007
Although there have recently been incessant discussions on the "united
candidate" representing the pro-Opposition or the pro-Government camp,
all that is happening now is just the contrary: the number of those
desiring to nominate their candidacy is definitely increasing.
After all, the main political factions continuously delay the moment
of pronouncing their "last word". It is not accidental that almost
all the party sessions are postponed till the end of autumn or the
beginning of winter in an unnoticeable though consistent manner.
The general regularity i.e. the postponement of the RPA session, the
fact of convening 2 ARFD Supreme Councils instead of 1, the failure of
"National Unity" to make a final decision in a conference held recently
and finally L. Ter-Petrosyan’s tactics of "thinking long" testifies to
the fact that the issue of establishing unions among the candidates is
gradually moving to a new stage as a result of their increasing number.
It is natural the nominations and, hence, the "classification scale"
of those making political pretensions is beginning to acquire a new
sense in such conditions. In the past it was possible to divide
them into 2 main groups: pretenders and "immortals" who nominate
themselves in order to win the honorable name of "former candidate
for the RA President".
Presently there has developed a more complex, three-stage scale instead
of the former two-stage system. It includes: a) pretenders who will
pursue the struggle till the end; b) conventional pretenders or people
trying their luck. Such people join the campaign with the purpose of
uniting others around them and becoming a serious pretender during
the coming months, and if the worst comes to the worst – selling
themselves at a high price to any other pretender; c) "immortals" or
formal candidates who do not and will not have any chance of becoming
pretenders, and who nominate themselves in order to become visible,
extort something and at least – turn into immortal creature.
If in the past the majority of the candidates represented in the first
category were, apart from the pro-Government candidate, struggling for
the second position, i.e. for winning the laureates of the Opposition
leader, currently their number is becoming less, and it is extremely
difficult to say whether it will increase again. L. Ter-Petrosyan’s
intention, which became clear to everybody at the end of September,
drastically changes the situation inside the pro-Opposition camp. The
latter doesn’t currently have "a great number of pretenders to the
second position", since Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s nomination makes it
clear to everybody that the first and second positions are already
occupied, considering the present-day arrangement of the forces. As
to the coming months, no serious change is likely to occur then.
This definitely shakes the positions of all the left-wing candidates
pretending to the role of the Opposition leader, without influencing
the positions of the right wing and its candidate Serge Sargsyan.
Therefore, finding themselves in the above mentioned conditions,
Arthur Baghdasaryan, Artashes Geghamyn, Vazgen Manoukyan, Stepan
Demirtchyan, Aram Z. Sargsyan, Raffi Hovhannisyan, Aram Karapetyan
and others have to choose one of the following 3 possible options.
The first is the way which seems to have been paved by Aram
Z. Sargsyan and Stepan Demirtchyan, i.e. moving under the wing
of the "new Opposition leader"; The second option is the struggle
against Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who has submitted a claim for "the new
Opposition leader". The goal is to occupy his position, and Vazgen
Manoukyan is currently the only person who is so consistently engaged
in that process.
And finally, the people, already classified as second category
pro-Opposition activists, also have the third option: supporting
the pro-Government candidate based on the national-political course
adopted since 1998.
Thus, the rearrangements that occurred on the political arena in
September are, on the one hand, delaying the final clarifications
till November-December but, on the other hand, they almost lead
to the inevitability of a bipolar confrontation during the 2008
presidential elections.