AZERBAIJAN: IS IRAN THE REASON FOR THE CIA DIRECTOR’S RECENT VISIT TO BAKU?
Rovshan Ismayilov

EurasiaNet, NY
Oct 4 2007

Political analysts in Baku are debating the reasons for an unannounced
late September trip to Azerbaijan by Central Intelligence Agency
Director Gen. Michael Hayden. US diplomats remain tight-lipped about
the visit. Many local experts, however, contend that Hayden’s talks
with Azerbaijani leaders likely concerned Iran, Azerbaijan’s neighbor
to the south.

Gen. Hayden’s one-day visit on September 28, which included a meeting
with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Minister of National
Security Eldar Makhmudov, was not publicized in advance, and few
details have since been provided. According to informed sources,
the CIA director arrived in Baku late on the night of September
27. The Turan news agency has cited "unofficial sources" as saying
Hayden stayed in a private downtown hotel at which special security
measures were taken. He left Baku in the early evening on September 28.

US Embassy spokesperson Jonathan Henick told EurasiaNet that Hayden’s
visit was part of a trip to several countries in the region. Henick
would confirm only that Hayden discussed issues related to regional
security and international terrorism with President Aliyev and National
Security Minister Makhmudov. Azerbaijani officials likewise declined
to elaborate on the nature or specifics of the discussions.

Some Azerbaijani analysts, however, see "the Iranian issue" as the
most pressing reason for the CIA director’s trip. The trip came five
days before an October 3 statement by US President George W. Bush
that Washington was prepared, under certain conditions, to negotiate
with Tehran on the nuclear issue.

"This is a leader who has made very provocative statements, and we
have made it clear, however, in spite of that we are willing to sit
down with him so long as he suspends his program, his nuclear weapons
program," President Bush said, referring to Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad. "In other words, it’s his choice not mine any more."

"It is obvious that the CIA director would not travel to Baku without
a serious reason for discussions," commented expert Rasim Musabekov.

"It is clear – most likely Iranian issues were discussed."

Political columnist Rauf Mirkadirov of Baku’s Russian-language Zerkalo
(Mirror) daily seconds that view. "[The] CIA director would hardly
visit Azerbaijan just for meeting with the president and the national
security minister and discussing general issues," he argued.

"Most likely, a complex of problems [was] discussed . . . The major
issue is no doubt Iran and the potential development of the situation
around its nuclear program," Mirkadirov said. Relations between
Azerbaijan and Russia and the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas
pipeline could also have been raised, he added. [For background see
the Eurasia Insight archive].

Ilgar Mammadov, an independent Baku-based analyst, drew attention to
the fact that Hayden’s visit occurred shortly before the scheduled
start of a trial of a pro-Iranian extremist group charged with trying
to create a Shar’ia-based religious state in Azerbaijan.

A preliminary hearing for the government’s case against the 15-member
group, named after its leader, Said Dadashbeyli, took place at the
end of September in Baku, the Turan news agency reported on October
1. Group members are also charged with high treason, illegal arms
possession, illegal contact with foreign intelligence services,
robbery and other crimes.

The Ministry of National Security alleges that Dadashbeyli, an
Azerbaijani citizen, worked with radical Islamic organizations –
as yet not publicly named – and Iranian intelligence agents to set
up a state with Shar’ia laws. A military group, dubbed the Northern
Army of Mehdi, was allegedly formed by several of the defendants,
prosecutors allege. Prosecutors also claim that one of the group’s
members, Jeihun Aliyev, traveled to the Iranian holy city of Qom,
where he was offered money by Iranian agents. The money was to be
used to mount a propaganda campaign designed to undermine Western
and Israeli influence in Azerbaijan.

According to the investigation, group members received training
in Iran. In Baku, they carried out physical training routines at
the Interior Ministry’s Dinamo sports center and held religious
discussions at the Karabakh War Invalids Society, according to media
reports. Mob-related contract "hit jobs" were allegedly carried out
by Dadashbeyli to raise money for the group’s activities, authorities
allege.

Neither the group, nor Tehran is known to have commented on the
charges. The group’s trial is scheduled to begin on October 8 in Baku
behind closed doors.

"Usually, such issues [security, fighting extremists and terrorist
groups] are being discussed at the highest level. Therefore, it is
possible that Hayden’s visit is somehow linked with this trial,"
Mammadov said. "It is possible that Iran has intensified subversive
activity against Azerbaijan and the CIA director discussed this
issue." An exchange of intelligence information on extremists groups’
activity in the region, he added, is another possibility. [Ilgar
Mammadov is a board member of the Open Society Institute Assistance
Foundation Azerbaijan. EurasiaNet.org is financed by the Open Society
Institute’s Central Eurasia Project].

Azerbaijani media and political analysts have long contended that
Azerbaijan could be used by US forces as a base for potential military
operation against Iran. The US government, however, has repeatedly
denied such a possibility. Azerbaijani officials have also stressed
that they have no interest in being part of a military campaign against
Iran, a country with which Azerbaijan, also a majority Shi’ite society,
shares strong cultural and religious ties.

[For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The denials, however, have not convinced all analysts. Musabekov
did not exclude that Hayden traveled to Baku "to familiarize the
Azerbaijani leadership with some additional intelligence data that
may change Baku’s position over the issue of military operation
against Iran."

Columnist Mirkadirov takes issue with the claim that Hayden’s trip
was part of a larger regional tour. "There was no information that
Michael Hayden traveled to any other place in the region except Baku,"
he said. "I believe it was a targeted visit to Baku and after that he
[Hayden] returned to the United States."

Some pro-government political analysts, however, prefer to steer clear
of commentary. Political analyst Aydin Mirzazade, a parliamentarian
for the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party, commented that he does not want
to get lost in guesswork. "The US Embassy provided some information
[on the visit] and I have nothing to add," he said.

Editor’s Note: Rovshan Ismayilov is a freelance journalist based
in Baku.