HOW TO CLOSE THE ARMENIAN DOSSIER WITH A WIN-WIN FORMULA
By Mehmet OÐutcu*
Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Oct 3 2007
It was worth every second we spent last weekend at Oxford University’s
Egrove Park meeting halls discussing the Caucasus/Caspian Commission’s
findings and recommendations, which will be released in London on
Nov. 11-12 to the attention of the EU and leaders of the region.
This March 29, 2007 file photo shows the historic Akhtamar Church,
restored by the Turkish government, has become a modern symbol of
efforts to reconcile relations between Turks and Armenians.
The two-day deliberations were kicked off by an eloquent overview,
from Britain’s Special representative to the Caucasus, of the current
challenges faced in the colorful mosaic of countries in the region.
We were among speakers from the EU and government, media and civil
society representatives from Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia to
contribute our share to the final version of the commission report.
Justice and Development Party (AK Party) Deputy Chairman Reha Denemec
and Union of Chambers and Commodities Exchanges (TOBB) University Chair
of International Relations Professor Mustafa Aydýn (who also doubles
as the deputy chairman of the Caucasus Commission, assisted by the
London Information Network on Conflicts and State-building’s (LINKS)
Dennis Sammut) both gave an impressive performance to duly reflect
the Turkish perspective in the discussions and the draft report.
Leaving aside for the time being the lengthy discussions on how to
resolve the long-standing Caucasian disputes in Ossetia, Abkhazia and
Nagorno-Karabakh, let me focus in this op-ed on a currently "hot"
topic that we tackled during an informal Turkish-Armenian dialogue
session with some influential Armenian counterparts. I will avoid
naming them without permission due to Chatham House rules. Their views
are summed up in italics and my personal responses in brackets below:
~U Turkey should immediately establish diplomatic relations with
Armenia, open the border gates and lift the embargo imposed on
Armenia. It does not help at all to establish a direct connection
between these moves expected of Ankara and our efforts to win
recognition of the Armenian genocide by the US Congress and other
countries’ parliaments. There have been many initiatives in the
past for reconciliation through media, businessmen, civil society
organizations, academics, secret meetings behind closed doors and
foreign mediators — yet none of them have failed to yield any fruitful
results. To our mind, an unconditional government-to-government
dialogue between Ankara and Yerevan is a must, and we should create
such a mechanism without delay for a genuine dialogue to take
place. This is the number one priority.
[I could not agree more. You are absolutely right to call for a
direct dialogue mechanism; however, it is not the number one priority
for Turkey as it is for Armenia. From your urgency to act on these
measures, it is clear that they are working to provide Turkey with
effective leverage. Once the underlying reasons that have led Turkey
to take these steps are removed from the agenda, such a mechanism can
be immediately established. As you are well aware, the reasons that
remain are, inter alia: the continuing illegal Armenian occupation of
20 percent of Azerbaijani territory, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh,
the existence of Russian military bases in Armenia’s territory that
target Turkey and the refusal of the Armenian state to officially
recognize the current borders with Turkey. Without serious progress
in the foregoing disputes to inspire Armenia’s good faith vis-a-vis
Azerbaijan and Turkey, it will be too optimistic to expect that Turkey
can move in the direction desired by Yerevan as if all is fine in
our relationship.]
~U Turkey’s failure to maintain normal diplomatic relations with
Armenia and persistent threats to use military force have pushed
Armenia to the arms of Russia and Iran for security and support.
Given our limited leverage over Turkey’s policies, we tend to put
pressure on Ankara by way of our strategic connections with the US,
the EU, Russia and Iran — this is done in large measure through
the lobbying power of the Armenian diaspora. This is not to say
that everything will be fine after proper diplomatic relations are
established between our two countries, but you will agree that at
least both countries could gain better insight into their respective
positions and develop creative solutions than what they could achieve
otherwise through indirect contacts. Moreover, direct dialogue with
Armenia will likely enhance Ankara’s ability to serve as a mediator
to resolve the disputes with Azerbaijan and dominate the dialogue
process owing to its obvious economic, military and diplomatic might.
[It goes without saying that Ankara too is not content with the
stalemate in the current situation. We do not want the Armenian
question to top our national and international agenda as it impairs
Turkey becoming an effective regional power and opens Turkey to the
whims of international pressure from different quarters. It is also
true that creating opportunities for cross-border trade, investment
and other exchanges with Armenia will generate much good for Kars, Aðrý
and Erzurum. However, the greatest benefits from such a rapprochement
will undoubtedly flow to Armenia, a land-locked nation suffering from
serious economic and social hardship.
[Also, let us not forget that an increasingly wealthy and influential
Azerbaijan may decide to resort to military options — once it feels
all other means are exhausted and it is sufficiently equipped to do
so in the not too distant future — to resolve the disputes with
Armenia and liberate its occupied territories. Its vast oil and
natural gas resources could make this financially possible. Then,
Armenia may find itself in a situation much worse than today. Of
course, for this to happen, Georgia should be able to prevent Russia
from directly supporting Armenia. Iran should also be neutralized by
using the influence of the 25 to 30 million Iranians of Azeri origin.
Under such a scenario, Turkey’s policy will be decisive.
[Hence, we all share a common interest in promoting stability, security
and prosperity in the Caucasus, avoiding any resort to military means
which will plunge the region into deeper chaos. The prerequisite is
for Yerevan to take the initial steps in good faith.
No doubt, these steps should be discussed and negotiated first and
transformed into a concrete formula to achieve a "win-win" formula
for all sides so that our respective publics can stomach, without
loss of face, what will be agreed upon at the governmental level.]
~U This time it seems that the Armenian genocide resolution is set to
be adopted by the US Congress. And you are aware that the implications
of such a resolution for Turkey will be more wide-ranging and serious
than the earlier resolutions adopted by the Brazilian, Polish and
other parliaments. If the adoption of this bill is not prevented and
Turkey continues with its current intransigence, you should expect
Armenia and our diaspora to come up with new demands. In a nutshell,
Ankara’s early move to diplomatically recognize Armenia, open the
borders and lift the embargo could well contribute to the shelving
of this US resolution and the creation of a conducive environment
for dialogue on other issues.
[I am afraid that such tactics will only backfire. Ankara cannot act
naively on the assumption of what you state. The Armenian "genocide"
bill has long been deployed as a means of pressure on Turkey. Even
though the adoption of such a resolution was somehow able to be
prevented this year, we know that it will re-emerge on the agenda
next year and beyond to extract further concessions. Therefore,
the goal should not be to save the day; it should be to achieve true
historical reconciliation and peace for both the current and future
generations in our region. The only thing that keeps the diaspora
bonded is its tireless efforts to get international recognition of
the Armenian "genocide" and push forward the next steps associated
with such recognition. For this reason, I personally do not believe
the diaspora will abandon its current approach. The Armenian diaspora
does not have any intention of leaving Chicago, Marseilles or Beirut
to return to their homeland. They often pursue comfortable lives in
their countries of residence. The new generation diaspora does not
have any organic links with today’s Armenia, which suffers severe
conditions and has to deal with the repercussions of their policies.
[True, Turkey has failed in its policies to distinguish between Armenia
and the Armenian diaspora. Our geography makes us dependent on each
other. The degree of dependency is much higher for Armenia than vice
versa. Turks have serious concerns on what will follow the recognition
of the "genocide" claims, as most diaspora representatives give ample
evidence of a "salami tactic" ploy pursued against Turkey. Any move
on your part to make future intentions crystal-clear will no doubt
contribute to the enhancement of mutual trust and make us believe in
your good faith. This will certainly be reciprocated. One thing which
our Armenian friends should have learned by now is that Turkey will
never shy away from defending its national interests and pride under
any international pressure. To the contrary, such pressure will only
solidify its determination.]
~U Genocide is a reality. We will not allow this reality to be
diluted by Turks who ask for the convening of another independent
commission of historians. We agree that both sides should empathize
with each other. You should understand the trauma of the generations
of Armenians. In turn, if I put myself in the shoes of a new
generation Turk, I would not, of course, have wanted to be labeled
as a descendant of a nation that committed genocide against another
people. We recognize the gravity of accepting this fact. In fact,
you should know that there is no consensus in Armenia on this matter.
Hence, bilateral negotiations could be held following an official
apology from Ankara for what happened during the Ottoman era to
determine the next steps. For instance, these steps could include,
for example, the mutual recognition of the existing borders under
international law, halting the campaign for international recognition
of the genocide, guaranteeing a transport corridor that will provide
Armenia with access to the sea through Trabzon and the like.
[Both sides have their own version of the "reality." The priority must
be to approximate these different "realities" so that we speak more
or less the same language. In this context, scientific findings by an
independent commission, not the politically motivated parliamentary
decisions, should guide us into this new era. The "facts" you are
referring to are the "facts" established mostly unilaterally without
much reference to the body of vast documentation in Ottoman, Russian
and German archives. Furthermore, the Armenian accusations go beyond
the realm of the Ottoman leaders; they also implicate the founding
fathers of the Republic of Turkey. Turkey is party to the UN Convention
on Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. If one of the
parties holds that another party misinterprets the convention and
fails to comply with its provisions, it has the right to take the
case to the International Court of Justice under Article IX of the
convention The crime of genocide could therefore be ascertained by
the decision of a competent court.
I doubt that the diaspora will heed any advice given by Yerevan. It
so often happens that the diaspora dictates the policies of Yerevan,
particularly on this matter.
[If a true reconciliation is sought, we should also be respectful
of the memories of the hundreds of thousands of Turks and Muslims
massacred during these unfortunate events in Anatolia. I will not
forget the tens of Turkish diplomats gunned down by Armenian terrorists
since the 1970s just because they were Turks. Added to this are the
most recent indiscriminate Hodjali massacres of Azeris by Armenian
groups. My humble suggestion is to erect a gigantic monument on
Mt. Aðrý, visible on both sides of the border, in memory of all
people massacred ruthlessly. It should be designed by a group of
Turkish and Armenian architects. Also, equally important as engaging
in give-and-take diplomacy on the governmental level is an effective,
realistic and balanced communication strategy targeting our peoples
for increasing the chances of any reconciliation accepted by them for
the purposes of learning from bitter historical lessons and looking
with confidence to the future of our new generations.]
The Armenian "question" is at a critical crossroad today. The
opportunity has presented itself to close this dossier and re-launch
our relations with new vigor. Or, alternatively, we will continue
enveloping ourselves in the darkness of controversial history and
plant further seeds of hatred and animosity for long years to come.
The choice is ours: Both parties should minimize the impact of third
parties — Azerbaijan for Turkey, and Russia, Iran and the diaspora
for Armenia — and agree on a solid, mutually agreed upon roadmap to
achieve real progress. Otherwise, this process of flaming hostility
will unfortunately become irreversible and cause both sides to suffer
serious losses.
Working for a political rather than a military solution (on which
Azerbaijan may so decide) is a choice that Ankara prefers. The
unwarranted intervention by outside powers will turn the already
turbulent region into a powder keg. For this reason, we must carefully
and with a forward-looking approach brainstorm how we can bridge
the vast gap that exists between our positions and perceptions of
"reality" and put a stop to the mutual accusations and inflammatory
discourse. While doing so, we should continue building informal
cultural, commercial and transport links as well as civil society
activities already under way to inspire confidence and trust between
these two great nations for the eventual goal of achieving historic
and lasting reconciliation.
* Mehmet Oðutcu, a former Turkish diplomat, is an OECD
executive currently living in London and can be reached at
ogutcudunya@yahoo.co.uk 03.10.2007
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