WHAT SERGE SARGSYAN BELIEVES AND WHAT SERGE SARGSYAN DISBELIEVES
Hakob Badalyan

Lragir, Armenia
Oct 5 2007

When Vladimir Putin in Russia agreed to lead the ticket of the
pro-government Yedinaya Rossia Party and did not rule out taking up
the office of prime minister after leaving office of president, many
started thinking in Armenia that Robert Kocharyan might do the same.

Certainly, Robert Kocharyan cannot lead the ticket of the Yedinaya
Rossia Party. The post of prime minister is meant. There had been
such suppositions before Putin’s statement. When Robert Kocharyan
said he was not worse than others and he was not likely to retire,
the society thought that the president hinted at the post of prime
minister after his term of presidency ends. When Putin did not rule
it out, the society in Armenia came to the definitive conclusion that
if Putin decided to become prime minister, he would approve Robert
Kocharyan for the post of prime minister.

Perhaps Serge Sargsyan is also anxious, who stated a few days after
Putin that he does not think Robert Kocharyan wants to be prime
minister. "I have no reason not to believe Robert Kocharyan," Serge
Sargsyan stated. Now it is interesting to know what reason he has
to believe Robert Kocharyan. Not in the sense that the president
regularly lies, but in the sense what Serge Sargsyan believes and
what Serge Sargsyan disbelieves. Did he have Robert Kocharyan’s word
not to wish to be prime minister? Perhaps it is rather important
because if Serge Sargsyan has his word and says he trusts him not to
go back on his word, it means he fears that if Robert Kocharyan does
not keep his word, and wishes to be prime minister, Serge Sargsyan
cannot prevent him. In this case, it is interesting to know what
the parliament majority led by Serge Sargsyan is for. After all,
the president appoints prime minister when the parliament majority
approves the nomination, and if Robert Kocharyan wished to be prime
minister, Serge Sargsyan could prevent him by relying on the parliament
majority or might not prevent him but would control Robert Kocharyan
the prime minister through the parliament majority.

In other words, the absolute victory on May 12 was thought to guarantee
Serge Sargsyan absolute control of government levers, and his further
actions show that he got and uses this possibility. Serge Sargsyan
leaves no space for even the weather forecast on the air and pages of
the government propaganda machine. Consequently, he should not worry
who the next president will be for the parliament is his for the next
five years. Consequently, when Serge Sargsyan disbelieves that Robert
Kocharyan will break his promise, which is the same as the arrangement,
it means he does not think himself to control fully the situation,
and what Serge Sargsyan is doing now is but with the approval of
Robert Kocharyan. In other words, the TV channels and print media,
meetings in the regions, the parliament majority have been generously
provided to Serge Sargsyan by Robert Kocharyan. And it is interesting
to know in return for what this generosity is. Only security of his
life and possessions in the future? Judging by Robert Kocharyan’s
statement that he is not worse than others, he would not have been so
generous in return for that much and would not have given all to Serge
Sargsyan and kept only retirement for himself. But if they had arranged
something else, Serge Sargsyan would not fear that Robert Kocharyan
would become prime minister and take away all his power, turning him
into an observer. It means Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan have
no long-term arrangement. And in this case Robert Kocharyan has more
advantages because, unlike Serge Sargsyan, his goal is uncertain. It
is clear that Serge Sargsyan wants to be president but it is not
clear what Robert Kocharyan wants to be. Consequently, it is easier
to hinder Serge Sargsyan, for it is known where he is headed for, than
Robert Kocharyan, for it is unknown toward where he will be moving.