THE COSTLY BILL AWAITING US ALL THE DAY AFTER

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Oct 8 2007

Turkish-American relations, which we have described as a strategic
partnership, will be seriously tested by a new process that will
begin this week. It is known that the Armenian diaspora and lobbies
working for the recognition of the 1915 incidents as genocide by the
US Senate is very close to attaining their goal this year.

I should note that ignoring a total tragedy that happened in the
atmosphere of World War I and focusing only some parts of the larger
tragedy is a betrayal of history. The betrayal becomes bigger through
attempts to isolate the said partial drama from the entire tragedy
and to ensure its legal recognition as genocide. The betrayal also
makes these attempts irreconcilable with the science of history and
the sense of justice and reason.

An important test awaits US Congress in terms of their attachment
to the bilateral relations with Turkey as well as their commitment
to justice and reason. The process to ensure legal recognition of
the Armenian allegations as genocide is being launched through
the deliberations on the draft resolution at the US House of
Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs on Wednesday. We will all
see in the coming months whether the process will lead to the adoption
of a certain bill on the endorsement of the Armenian allegations.

The same draft has made it through similar phases in the past. The
draft was even considered at the congressional plenary session in 2000,
but its adoption was prevented at the last minute at the initiative
of President Bill Clinton. But the current support for the draft
among Congress members is reportedly the highest ever. Control of
the current administration by the Republicans and of Congress by
the Democrats and the tense relations between the two parties raised
doubt as to whether or not Bush’s probable intervention would be as
effective upon the Congressmen as Clinton’s once was.

We will wait and see — without much hope, though — whether the White
House statement issued following the phone call between Turkish Prime
Minister Erdoðan and US President George W. Bush on Friday will work
out. In the statement, the House noted: "The president describes the
1915 incidents as one of the biggest tragedies in the 20th century. But
he is determined that whether the events constitute a genocide should
be a matter for historical inquiry, not legislation.

The president reiterated his opposition to this resolution, the
passage of which would be harmful to U.S. relations with Turkey."

However, in such delicate times, the worst should also be taken
into consideration to prevent huge disappointments. Besides not
only Turkey, but also the US administration, Armenia and even Israel
should be prepared for the worst. Proper scenarios should be developed
accordingly. As Foreign Minister and chief EU negotiator Ali Babacan
underlined in his interview with Today’s Zaman: "If it is passed,
relations with the United States will undoubtedly be affected very
negatively. It will further damage the US image in Turkey. We, as
the government, can’t prevent it no matter what we do… The Jewish
population will inevitably be the target of public anger in Turkey."

Babacan also said in the same interview that Turkish officials have
told the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) and other US Jewish groups in
recent talks that the widespread perception in Turkey would be that
"Armenian and Jewish lobbies have united forces against Turks." And
he added that: "We have told them that we cannot explain it to the
Turkish public if a road accident happens. We have told them that we
cannot keep the Jewish people out of this."

Babacan is right. In the event of the adoption of the Armenian genocide
resolution at the Congress, there will be a costly bill awaiting all
parties. Let us review the probable bill at a glance:

It will be impossible to keep anti-Americanism among Turkish people at
the current level of 90 percent, which is already at the highest-ever
due to the Iraqi occupation and US reluctance to deal with the
PKK. The bilateral relations will further deteriorate. As pointed
out by The Washington Post, some additional problems may arise in
relation to the use of Ýncirlik Base. Turkey, which currently offers
military and logistical support for the US in Afghanistan and Iraq,
may waver in its position. This may have serious repercussions for
developments in Iraq and the entire Middle East region.

In the event of the resolution’s adoption, Turkey will no longer be
ambivalent in regard to making a decision on the row between the US
and Iran. It is not so difficult to predict that the US will not be
pleased by the new position Turkey holds.

Attempts by Turkey to improve relations with Armenia as well as
bilateral relations with Israel will be seriously hampered by the
adoption of the resolution. The embargo imposed by Turkey on Armenia
will be expanded in a way implemented by the US in relation to firms
conducting business relations with Iran. The measures to be introduced
within the context of the embargo will even include the prohibition
of indirect sales to Armenia. The probable measures against illegal
Armenian workers in Turkey will add a more dramatic dimension to the
entire situation.

Undoubtedly Turkish Armenians will be greatly uneasy at the passage
of the resolution. They will probably be subjected to growing public
anger and outrage in connection with the bill’s adoption.

Somebody had better tell us the benefits of such an evil draft,
if there are any.

–Boundary_(ID_su00Eq9RwcPplJi47g6L2w)–

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress