TURKEY MULLS MEASURES FOR THE DAY AFTER

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Oct 8 2007

Diplomacy is continuing at top speed to deter a possible move at the
US Congress to pass a resolution supporting Armenian allegations of
genocide at the hands of the late Ottoman Empire, but as a House
committee vote on the measure looms large on the horizon, Turkish
decision makers are also preparing for the worst-case scenario,
which does not seem all that improbable.

The US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs will
vote on Resolution 106, which calls on the US president to ensure
the "Armenian genocide" will be reflected in US foreign policy, on
Wednesday. The measure is widely expected to clear the committee,
which will pave the way for its introduction in the House floor.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi can, in theory, block the measure, but
few expect she will do so, given her open support for the genocide
allegations and pre-election pledges to work for congressional
acknowledgement of the charges.

"We are not helpless if this resolution is passed," said Onur Oymen,
senior lawmaker from the main opposition Republican People’s Party
(CHP) and former diplomat, in a phone interview with Today’s Zaman
yesterday. He noted that Turkey had responded to a US decision to
impose a military embargo on Turkey following the Turkish intervention
in Cyprus in 1974 by blocking US access to all bases in its territory.

What is at stake, say observers, is the US right to use an air base in
southern Turkey, Ýncirlik. The base is critical, mostly for operations
in Iraq, and its role may become even more critical in the coming
months if US opts to use Turkish territory in a possible pullout of
its troops from Iraq.

Experts note there are agreements signed by the Turkish and US
governments to authorize US use of the base and warn closure of
Ýncirlik could pose legal problems. But Oymen said that in practice
the base is used for broader purposes that go beyond the framework
stipulated in a 1980 agreement for defense cooperation between Turkey
and the United States.

According to Oymen the US may lose a major route for logistics
supplies for US troops in Iraq if Turkey decides to stop cooperating
with Washington on Iraq, another possible measure to retaliate a
congressional approval of the "genocide resolution."

"70 percent of the [US] logistics materials are transferred through
Turkey to Iraq," said Oymen.

Counting on diplomacy

A closure of Ýncirlik and halting cooperation with the United States
on Iraq could be two ways of hurting US interests in a critical region
like the Middle East. And there are other steps that Turkish officials
have refrained from publicly mentioning, such as Turkey’s ongoing
support for operations of the International Security Assistance Force
(ISAF) in Afghanistan, or further tightening of the restrictions on
ties with Armenia. There are tens of thousands of Armenians working
in Turkey without fulfilling the proper legal conditions, such as
obtaining work or residence permits. And although there are no formal
ties with Armenia, charter flights are in service between the two
countries and Turkish goods find their way on to the Armenian market.

What is more, Turkish officials have been sending out warnings lately
that not only US-Turkey ties but also the regional cooperation with
Israel would suffer if the Armenian resolution is passed in the US
Congress, after influential US Jewish group the Anti-Defamation League
(ADL) changed its long-held position and decided to call the World
War I events "genocide."

Taking the risk seriously, eight former secretaries of state recently
wrote a letter to Pelosi, urging her to block the resolution to
protect US interests in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as prospects
for Turkish-Armenian reconciliation. Retired Lt. Gen. Tony Scowcroft,
chairman of the American-Turkish Council, added to the list concerns
over the "many billions of dollars of annual trade with Turkey, both
defense and civilian," and many "American jobs" that would be at stake.

But what complicates the matter is that these measures, if implemented,
have the potential to hurt Turkish interests, in some ways more than
they hurt US interests. Aware of the danger, Turkish policy makers
have intensified diplomacy to avert passage of the resolution ahead
of Wednesday’s first vote.

Parliament Speaker Koksal Toptan sent a letter yesterday to Pelosi
warning of the negative consequences of the measure’s passage and
emphasizing that "it might take decades to heal negative effects of
the bill if it passes." If it happens, he said, "It will be difficult
to control the dynamics triggered by Turkish public reaction."

"What we are focused on now is ensuring this issue will not come to
such a point as to affect US foreign policy," said Yaþar Yakýþ, a
lawmaker from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), in
a phone interview with Today’s Zaman. "This is what serious states like
us are expected to do. Threatening retaliation leads to escalation."

As part of the intensifying diplomacy, a group of Turkish deputies,
including the AK Party’s Egemen Baðýþ, CHP’s Þukru Elekdað and the
Nationalist Movement Party’s (MHP) Gunduz Aktan, are heading to the
United States this week for talks on Oct. 8-11 with Congress members
about the resolution.

Self-punishment?

Retaliation through halting cooperation with the United States
in strategic and economic areas is a double-edged sword that may
equally harm Turkey. High tension in relations with the United States
may prove to be an undesired situation for the Turkish government,
which has worked carefully — and successfully — to achieve economic
stability throughout the nearly five years that it has been in power.

Looking at the means of retaliation case by case, the blocking of
US access to Ýncirlik and cutting of the supply line for US troops
in Iraq would put the US forces in Iraq in a difficult situation,
further complicating the security situation in the war-torn country.

"Sudden deterioration in the situation of the US troops in Iraq, and
thus in the overall security situation in Iraq, is not a favorable
option for Turkey," said foreign policy expert Cengiz Candar, who is
also a columnist for daily Referans.

Any damage to Israeli ties as a result of the US Congress passage of
the Armenian resolution would deal a blow to Turkey’s aspirations to
become a credible regional actor after all the success the government
has achieved to that effect over the past five years, according to
Hurriyet columnist Ferai Týnc.

"Turkey occupies a geographical position such that it is geopolitically
significant for the United States in every issue that Washington is
concerned with," said Candar, but added that "maintaining the good
relations is as vital for Turkey as it is for the United States."

–Boundary_(ID_0zvlgLe38/ZlGjiCy5ji oQ)–