TURKEY ADVISED TO WEIGH RESPONSE TO EXPECTED PASSAGE OF ARMENIAN BILL IN USA

Zaman, Turkey
Oct 8 2007

Column by Ali H. Aslan in Washington: "The Armenian Resolution on
the Horizon of the Evening of No Return"

What was feared has come about. The famous Armenian "genocide"
resolution, which was a bomb just waiting to explode, will be
discussed on Wednesday in the Foreign Affairs Committee of House of
Representatives. We are now on the horizon of the evening from which
there will be no return.

Because the forces that have taken this bill to this point – I
am referring to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Majority
Leader Steny Hoyer – are without a doubt going to take it to a higher
level. (The Democrats hold a majority both on the Committee and in
the Congress.) Thereafter, it will be put onto the schedule of the
full House whenever Madame Pelosi desires. Indeed, of the 435 members,
226 have already registered their support. Consequently, for the bill
to come to the full House will mean its passage.

It is being said that the meeting in New York City of Turkish and
Armenian Foreign Ministers Ali Babacan and Vartan Oskanian went well.

The contacts are being continued through intermediaries. But from
now on it will, in my opinion, be difficult for the Armenians, and
especially the diaspora, to apply the brakes. Prime Minister [Recep
Tayyip] Erdogan called [US President George W.] Bush, but the hands of
the White House, which has no sanctioning power over the Democrats,
are largely tied. I asked an American government official, who is
largely occupied these days with thwarting the resolution: "In your
view, will it pass this time?" The response, delivered with sadness,
was "I think that it will pass."

The fundamental concern of the Bush administration is that, if this
bill passes, the Turkish public, making no distinction between the US
Congress and the Bush administration, will extend its anger to all
Americans, and call for retaliation. Assistant Secretary of State
Dan Fried said on Thursday that "the Turkish reaction will be quite
harsh." He pointed out how "dependent" the United States is on logistic
support for Iraq conducted via Turkey. I asked a State Department
official how they viewed the possibility of Turkey’s closing Incirlik
Airbase to the Americans. He replied by saying only "I hope that the
status of Incirlik does not change." But he knows as well that there
will be great public pressure on the Erdogan government in this regard.

Washington’s margin for initiatives that would mollify Turkey is
also limited. For instance, I asked one official with whom I spoke
whether the likelihood of a substantial operation against the PKK in
Northern Iraq would increase. The answer was that "these two issues
are not related to one another." These developments will pretty well
reinforce the nature of the United States as a "threat" in the eyes
of the Turkish nation, whose anger has already reached a peak due to
the Iraq War and PKK attacks.

The political dogfight in Washington between Democrats and Republicans
also shows itself in the Armenian resolution. The Bush administration
has been backed into a corner with the resolution. And I am certain
that Madame Pelosi and her colleagues are taking pleasure in this. They
are not even paying attention to their own country’s leading names
in foreign policy, let alone Turkey and the Turkish government. The
warning letters by eight former US Secretaries of State, from both
parties, and three former Secretaries of Defence, have been ignored.

The point that things have now reached should not be ascribed to
weakness on the part of the AKP [Justice and Development Party]
government, or of the current Embassy in Washington. The price is
being paid for years of neglect and lack of foresight. And solidarity
of the Westerners just adds to it. The Turkish American community has
no influence in terms of lobbying. You can only get so far with paid
lobbying companies. Turkey is currently working with the Livingston
Group, which is close to the Republicans, as well as with DLA Piper,
which is close to the Democrats. Better performance had been expected
in the Democratic-dominated Congress from the firm of Dick Gephardt,
in particular, who was formerly a Democratic leader. But there is
no concrete result to be seen. If the resolution passes, I suspect
that both lobbying firms will be bidden farewell. The current
constellation of forces also renders ineffective the visit of the
Turkish parliamentary delegation that is coming to Washington to lobby
this week. Indeed, the delegation, planned to consist of six people,
has fallen to three.

The American Congress will certainly deserve a reaction. In my
view, the reaction should be conveyed not in a way that will be
reflected with large headlines in the American media, but with more
intelligent methods, and should be focused on precise goals. The
reason is simple. If Incirlik were to be closed down, for instance,
we would end up having made publicity ourselves for the Armenian
genocide thesis to the broad American masses, whose attentions are
focused on the news from Iraq.

It should more be the Democrats that feel the price of ignoring Turkey.

On the other hand, it also makes no sense to get irreconcilably at
odds with a party that seems likely to govern the fate of the United
States in the near future.

Indeed, it is not worth it to burn our bridges entirely with the United
States over a political resolution that in any event has no official
or legally binding nature. Given our geography and our interests,
we are obliged to engage with the United States, and to take it into
account. Otherwise, we would fall into the game of the hostile lobbies
to prevent Turkey from becoming a regional and global player.

If properly exploited, the passage of the resolution could even
provide Turkey with certain advantages. Ankara’s bargaining strength
with Washington could increase, and it could get easier for it to say
‘no’ to certain American demands that do not suit its purposes. First
of all, the United States must get out of its head the unconditional
opening of the Armenian border, which it is still insisting upon. The
resolution will in particular give impetus to Turkey’s tendency to
depart from the US/Israeli line in policies involving Iran, Iraq,
Syria, and Palestine, and will provide a new excuse.

There is not always victory in foreign policy. It would be useless,
after losing the game in the American Congress, to give way to
incitement and throw things out onto the field. Because he who arises
in anger sits back down at a loss. [Turkish proverb] The league still
continues. The important thing is to learn from one’s losses, and
even to know how to turn them to one’s advantage over the long term.

And this means playing the foreign policy game with intelligence,
patience, and good sportsmanship.