Armenia row threatens US-Turkish ties

By Jonathan Marcus
BBC diplomatic correspondent
2007/10/11

This is not just a story about phantoms from the past.

It speaks powerfully about the changing relationship between two key
allies in a Middle East where the strategic landscape has been
transformed by America’s invasion of Iraq.

The warnings from Turkey could not be clearer. If the full House of
Representatives in Washington votes to back the labelling of the mass
killing of Armenians as genocide, then serious consequences will
follow.

This could mean, for example, denying the US military the ability to
ship crucial supplies through Turkish bases for operations in Iraq.

The fact that President George Bush publicly urged Congress not to
proceed with the issue seems to have had little impact either at home
or abroad. And that this would be a non-binding resolution, implying
no practical shift in US policy, seems to make little difference to
Turkish opinion either.

It is clear the Armenian massacres are a hugely sensitive issue for
Turkey. Debate has raged on this issue, often prompting diplomatic
strains. It has been a factor complicating ties, for example, between
Ankara and Paris.

Complicated relationship

But the strains between the US and Turkey arise from the confluence of
a number of factors.

Things are made worse by the fact that this row is unfolding in a very
different context from that which characterised the generally stable
relationship between Washington and Ankara during the Cold War years.

Then, Turkey anchored the Atlantic Alliance’s southern flank against
attack from the Soviet Union. In many ways the relationship was
simple.

Today, it is much more complex, not least because of the political
transformation that has taken place inside Turkey. The country’s
secular-minded generals now play an important, but less central, role
in day-to-day governance, and a moderate Islamist-rooted party has
taken the democratic path to power.

The initial crunch in US-Turkish ties came in the run-up to the US
invasion of Iraq, when the Turkish parliament refused to allow Turkish
territory to be the staging post for the operation to topple Saddam
Hussein’s regime.

Since then both sides have tried to repair the damage, with the
Americans, for example, applying huge diplomatic pressure to encourage
some of its more reluctant allies to facilitate Turkey’s membership of
the European Union.

The removal of a strong Iraq from the Middle East’s political
chessboard has, though, greatly changed the regional dynamics. It has
served to accentuate Turkish aspirations of becoming a key diplomatic
player.

Feeling partially rebuffed by the Europeans, given the tortuous
process of EU accession, Turkey is seeking new ties and new allies in
the Middle East.

Its overtures have not been hampered by the fact that it still
maintains reasonably close ties with Israel. Indeed that country has
helped Turkey to take on something of a mediating role.

Kurdish factor

But the collapse of strong central authority in Iraq has also provided
another looming problem with Washington.

The last thing that Turkey wants to see is an independent Kurdish
state in northern Iraq which it believes would create wider
instability. But it also wants something done about Kurdish guerrillas
– PKK fighters – who continue to cross over the border to attack
Turkish troops.

In the wake of recent incidents there are now growing fears of a
Turkish military incursion into northern Iraq to neutralise Kurdish
separatist guerrillas who have their camps there.

The pressures on the Turkish authorities to act are growing. The
Turkish army has stepped up its bombardment of targets in northern
Iraq.

Officials in Baghdad and Washington are alarmed. This is a new element
in the Iraqi drama that the Americans want to avoid at all costs.

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