LOTS OF TALK, LITTLE ACTION
By Shaun Walker, Special to Russia Profile

Russia Profile
Oct 10 2007
Russia

Last weekend’s CIS summit, held at the outer geographical extremity
of the union in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, was meant to breathe new
life into the alliance, but instead has again raised doubts about
its relevance and meaning. Despite plans to design a new conceptual
document to define the activities of the CIS, the leaders left Dushanbe
in disagreement, with only four countries – Russia, Belarus, Armenia
and Kyrgyzstan – signing all the documents on the agenda. As other
regional alliances mushroom, the CIS seems more and more to be simply
a talking shop for leaders of very different countries and with a
wide range of political systems to meet.

Despite the geographical proximity and historical commonalities of
the CIS countries, it seems easier today to list their differences and
disputes rather than similarities. Russia has fractious relations with
Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, which all, to some extent look Westward
to the EU. Kazakhstan has begun to show pique at Russia’s intent
to dominate the alliance, and even the once trustworthy Alexander
Lukashenko is becoming difficult for Russia, even reportedly snubbing
a pre-arranged bilateral meeting with President Vladimir Putin at
the Dushanbe summit. Then there are the differences between other
countries in the alliance, most notably the bitter dispute between
Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.

"It’s obviously not an integrationalist organization," said Vladimir
Zharikin, deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries in
Moscow. "For that you have to look more to EvrAzES," he said, referring
to the Eurasian Economic Community, which also held its summit in
Dushanbe over the weekend, during which perhaps the most meaningful
document of the weekend was signed, on a long-planned customs union
between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. And even this was done with
difficulty. It was unclear right up until the last minute whether
all three presidents would sign all the documents required to set
up the union, and Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan did so with
some hesitation, pointing out that Russia will receive 57 percent
of votes in the organ that will be set up to control the union. "Of
course Russia is the biggest (post-Soviet) economy," he said. "But
even though France and Germany have a special role in the European
Union, they can’t take decisions without the smaller countries." If
all goes to plan, the customs union will come into effect in 2011.

As for the CIS itself, Putin put a brave face on developments. "After
very long and harsh discussions on the fate of the CIS and its reform,
we agreed how and what should be done," he said. "We approved the CIS
Development Concept and a plan of concrete action. We agreed that
once a year we’d choose one topic and we’d focus all our attention
to it. We agreed that migration was a priority this year.

This is a very sensitive issue practically for all CIS members,
including for the Russian Federation. We consented to create a special
agency for coordinating positions on this issue."

But in reality, the plan to focus on one issue every year has been
in place for some time, and work on creating the development concept
was far from smooth. Unsurprisingly, the biggest tension was with
Georgia, which has had a difficult relationship with Russia for several
years. Mikheil Saakashvili, currently embroiled in a domestic crisis
after Irakly Okruashvili’s allegations of misgovernment, was under
pressure not to attend the summit. He did so, and told journalists
that he had not signed a single document there, although later reports
suggested he had signed at least three documents. After both Putin and
Saakashvili had made speeches bordering on vitriolic about the state
of democracy in the other’s country over the past week, a potential
bilateral meeting between the two leaders did not take place.

"It is regrettable that the head of the Georgian state, in particular,
did not sign important documents like the program for joint measures
to fight crime, the program for fighting the illegal circulation of
narcotic and psychotropic substances and their precursors, the program
of joint actions to fight terrorism and the program for fighting
theft of artefacts of cultural significance and for their return,"
said Andrei Kokoshkin, head of the Russian Duma’s CIS committee, to
Interfax. "He also did not sign the agreement on joint preparations
for the celebrations of the 65th anniversary of the victory of the
Soviet Union in World War II," Kokoshin said.

In addition to Georgian problems, the other members of the GUAM
organization also took issue with the documents. Ukraine in particular,
which was represented by Foreign Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk after
President Viktor Yushchenko declined to attend in order to deal with
the post-election situation, was unhappy. The Ukrainians did not
want to sign off on a clause naming the Russian language the medium
of international interactions in the CIS – although it’s unclear
in which other language they would prefer to speak to, for example,
Tajiks – and they were also not keen on the provision that the CIS
would provide observers for all elections and referendums. In the
three years he has been in the job, CIS head Vladimir Rushailo has
called all elections in CIS countries democratic, with the exception
of Yushchenko’s run-off victory against Viktor Yanukovich. Moldova
only signed off on the section concerning economic cooperation.

The unease with which the GUAM countries signed the documents shows
that the CIS is losing ground as a place to solve real issues to other
regional groupings. When asked by Nezavisimaya Gazeta why, if the CIS
was a divorce mechanism, a new conception was needed when the divorce
had already occurred, a member of the Russian entourage replied:
"Sometimes people get divorced, but still have to live together
and have had children together. So therefore we needed to work on a
conceptual document."

"The CIS is practically dead," said Evgeny Zhovtis, head of the
Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law.

"The SCO has become much more important for Kazakhstan. The CIS
has less structure, and its goals and status are clear. Also, the
political systems involved are much more similar. Nobody wants to
talk about human rights or the rule of law, it’s all about security
and fighting terror." Moreover, Kazakhstan is keen to set up a new
union of Central Asian states where it would be able to take the lead.

But with a plethora of other alliances in place uniting members of
the CIS, the overall structure is likely to remain at least as a
forum for these leaders to discuss their differences.

The weekend also saw a series of appointments that will change not
only the CIS scene but also the Russian domestic political scene.

Sergei Lebedev, formerly the Russian foreign intelligence chief,
will become head of the CIS, replacing Rushailo. Lebedev will be
replaced in his former post by outgoing Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov.

Meanwhile, Grigory Rapota, formerly the secretary general of EvrAzES,
will now become the president’s envoy to the Southern Federal District,
including the Caucasus republics of Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia,
a position vacated when Dmitry Kozak was called to Moscow to become
Minister for Regional Development.

In the end, perhaps the most interesting moment of the weekend was
an apparent slip of the tongue by Vladimir Putin, who told Alexander
Lukashenko that he’d see him at the next EvrAzES summit in Moscow.

Since the summit will take place in May 2008, after the presidential
elections, Putin won’t be there. Or will he?

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress