Leading article: The burden of history

The Independent
Published: 12 October 2007

A perfect diplomatic storm is brewing in Turkey. This week a
Congressional committee in Washington voted in favour of a resolution
describing the mass slaughter of Armenians by Turkey in 1915 as
genocide. This has predictably gone down badly in Ankara, which
refuses to accept that the killing of 1.5 million Armenians during the
First Word War warrants such a label. Turkey is now considering
withdrawing military co-operation with the US over Iraq in response.

It gets worse. The Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has
been planning to introduce a motion to the Turkish parliament
sanctioning cross-border military operations into Iraqi Kurdistan to
strike the Kurdish rebel group operating from there. Such an incursion
could destabilise one of the few peaceful regions of Iraq. The White
House is trying to persuade Mr Erdogan not to send in troops, but the
Armenian resolution in Congress has wiped out Washington’s leverage.

It is possible to have some sympathy for Mr Erdogan. He is under huge
internal pressure to act over the Kurdish situation. The killing of 15
Turkish soldiers has turned Turkish public opinion in favour of
cross-border military action. And Mr Erdogan must be wary of the
hostile Turkish military establishment. Mr Erdogan’s Justice and
Development party won national elections this year, but the charge of
neglecting national security and refusing to stand up for Turkey
abroad would be a potent one.

There is no simple way out of this morass. Yet there is some hope.
There is no reason to believe that Mr Erdogan wants to alienate
Turkey’s allies in the US and the EU by invading Kurdistan. And the
motion before the Turkish parliament would allow an incursion any time
within the next year. This opens a window for the US to put pressure
on the Kurdish government to clamp down on the rebels operating from
within its borders.

In the long term, Turkey needs to accept the terrible stain that the
Armenian slaughter has left on its national history. Regardless of
whether these events are called genocide or not, there is scant
evidence of this acceptance so far in Turkey. A negotiated settlement
with the Kurdish separatists, who represent up to a fifth of the
population, is also long overdue.

But in the short-term, Mr Erdogan deserves support from abroad for
keeping the show on the road. The alternatives for the international
community at the moment are significantly worse. The Armenian genocide
and Kurdish separatism are ultimately issues that Turkey must come to
terms with. But the rest of the world could – and should – be doing
more to make things easier for the moderates in Ankara in the process.

Source: article3052322.ece