Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia
Oct 13 2007

ARMENIA HAS PASSED THAT STATION

Political scientist ANDRANIK MIHRANYAN was the guest-speaker of
the National Press Club yesterday

The journalists tried to clarify one issue: to what extent can the
scenario of President Putin’s becoming a Prime Minister apply to
Armenia, after the President’s ending his second term of office?
Touching upon President Kocharyan’s `Prime Ministerial’ plans of
repeating Mr. Putin’s scenario, a prospect that looks nightmarish to
some people, the speaker said, `The situation in Armenia is quite
different. In Russia, no political figure apart from Mr. Putin has an
electoral basis of his own. The situation in Armenia is different;
last year there were and currently there are people here who,
regardless the President, have their own electoral basis, their
resources and structures. The President’s support can, of course, be
important to a certain extent, but it can never be decisive.’
According to him, `Armenia has already passed that station; that
option is no longer actual after the parliamentary elections. If the
Republicans didn’t have a relevant number of votes and potentials in
the Parliament, if RPA and `Prosperous Armenia’ replaced each other,
and if Dashnaktsutyun were a majority party instead of the
Republican, all kinds of combinations would be possible. But after
the Parliamentary elections, the situation is such that the
pro-Government party has no alternative apart from running for
election with a united candidate. And everybody knows the name of
that candidate. Even in Moscow we are aware of it too.’
With regard to the ex-President’s unexpected appearance and his
pretensions to presidency, Mr. Mihranyan believes that his
participation in the electoral marathon may become the top intrigue
of the electoral campaign, just like `Prosperous Armenia’s’
appearance on the scene prior to the Parliamentary elections.
It turned out that as a professional analyst and political
scientists concerned about the problems of his home country, Mr.
Mihranyan has managed to have a meeting with Levon Ter-Petrosyan in
order to understand, `what’s going on here.’ Just fancy! He is
enthusiastic by the fact that the ex-President has marked his second
advent by visiting the office of Dashnaktsutyun party and meeting
Vazgen Manoukyan and that he, in general, is actively scrutinizing
his chances for `return’.
A. Mihranyan is under the impression that `he hasn’t made his
decision yet’ and even his closest people do not know whether the
ex-President will lead his struggle till the end or change his mind
in the middle of the way. `But if he advances his candidacy and runs
for elections, this will be a specific kind of referendum, by which
the people will express their attitude towards his Administration and
those years and the present-day Administration and these years.’ The
speaker was reluctant to make a `third hand’ assessment on the pros
and cons of these and those years; he only said that, `the people
have to weigh everything and decide what they give preference to and
what political and economic victories there were before 1998 and
thereafter.’
Anyway, `I will be happy if Mr. Ter-Petrosyan becomes a political
factor, i.e. a constructive factor that makes an investment in the
development of the political traditions, in order for these elections
not to become a separating factor, but, on the contrary, serve for
purposes of reconciling everybody with one another.’
And who has more chances and administrative resources for
achieving success in these elections? In response to this question,
the political scientist avoided to assume the role of a
fortune-teller. Nevertheless, estimating the real chances of the
Prime Minister and his `real alternative’ i.e. Mr. Ter-Petrosyan (as
presented by those supporting the Armenian pan-National Movement) he
stated, `Serge Sargsyan has a very big resource, and these are not
limited to administrative resources only. These may be informative
resources, financial resources etc. This is normal for a person who
has been in big politics for nearly 20 years and is in his upheaval,
considering that a few months ago the Republican Party had a tangible
victory in the parliamentary elections. The results of these
elections testify to the fact that Serge Sargsyan undoubtedly has
overwhelming potentials and chances,’ especially considering the fact
that `Prosperous Armenia’ has declared of its intention to support
him, and there will certainly be political forces that will support
the Prime Minister in a likewise manner.
As much as Levon Ter-Petrosyan is concerned, `If he manages to
bring all the pro-Opposition factions together and become a united
candidate, propose a program which can really encourage the people
who, in the course of so many years, have learnt to solve their
problems beyond the political arena, this can make the competition
more interesting. That’s to say, it will be impossible in this case
to speak about automatic victory. But if there are many factions
running for election on their own, and Levon Ter-Petrosyan is not
perceived as a united candidate, I find that his chances will be more
restricted.’
By the way, A. Mihranyan is inclined to exaggerate the factor of
external forces in the upcoming elections and doesn’t think that S.
Sargsyan is definitely the `candidate supported by Russia’ and Levon
Ter-Petrosyan – the candidate supported by Washington. Of course the
attitude of superpowers can have a certain impact; nevertheless, `the
decisive role will belong to the internal forces and the internal
resources. Even if the universe desires to participate in the
presidential elections of Armenia, it will be unable to do anything
if Armenia has not developed relevant conditions.
In what role does the political scientist see Robert Kocharyan
after the end of his term of office? Mr. Mihranyan does not have the
answer to this question since ha hasn’t had the occasion of meeting
the President in person and finding out what’s on his mind, and, in
general, he considers the President a reserved personality. He even
doubts that there are at least a couple of people with whom the he
`shares his thoughts’, that’s to say, trusts them his cherished
desires in an outspoken manner. `But Robert Kocharyan is young: he
already has a 10 years’ experience in Armenia and before that – a 10
years’ experience in Karabakh. And I believe, he will find his
place,’ the political scientist predicted.