TREND News Agency, Azerbaijan
Oct 13 2007

Gabala Radar Station Issue Should be Resolved by Sovereign
Azerbaijani People – US Political Scientist

Russia, Moscow / Òrend corr R. Aghayev / Trend’s exclusive interview
with the manager of the US World Security Institutes’ Russian and
Asian programs, political scientist Nikolai Zlobin .

Question: What do you think about Russia-U.S. consultations on
anti-missile defence ongoing in Moscow and the prospects for the
bilateral negotiations?

Answer: I do not see any prospects for the current negotiations. I
think they are held mostly mechanically, as a part of the negotiating
process which began long ago but has not yet resulted in any positive
outcomes. Holding of the negotiations is a positive step, but on the
other hand, these hopeless talks cause some fatigue. None of the
sides suggest new ideas, demonstrates political will, increases trust
with respect to the other side. Therefore, I believe this round of
talks will not bring any good results.

Question: What will the Unites States and Russia do to overcome the
anti-missile defence problem?

Answer: It is worth mentioning that anti-missile defence problem is
also an internal political problem of the United States. That is one
of the points in Bush administration’s foreign policy doctrine
requiring implementation. What the Unites States will do is mainly
contingent on the internal political situation in the country, though
the issue has gained a good speed and irrespective of Bush
administration the deployment of anti-missile defence system and its
elements in East Europe will be continued by Democratic Presidents as
well, whoever is elected in November of 2008. At the current stage
Americans will still make efforts to construct missile shield
elements in the Check Republic and Poland. I think the United States
virtually cannot be stopped, for it considers missile shield to be
protection of its national interests, and when Americans speak of
their national interests any reasonable and unreasonable arguments
merely are no longer relevant. Therefore, nothing will change on this
point. As for Russia, it will react by taking a range of steps
complicating the situation for the United States both in Europe and
the entire Eurasian region, mainly in cooperation on
non-proliferation of Iran, Iraq and other counties’ nuclear weapons.
Russia’s further reaction will become a headache for the Unites
States, so very drastic and determined anti-U.S. actions should be
expected from Russia. Russia will try to create as much as possible
problems to Americans, thus demonstrating that deterioration of
relations with Russia means too much for the Unites States to put the
relations under a risk through deploying missile shield elements in
the Check Republic and Poland, that Russia could be useful for the
United States much more than it conceives, and can make more harm
then it can imagine.

Question: What is the role of Azerbaijan in this problem? What will
happen to the Gabala radar station? Will Russia insist on joint
exploitation of the station or will it make some new proposals?

Answer: It should be kept in mind that that final word in this issue
should be said by Azerbaijan. In no way the Unites States or Russia
should be allowed to solve the matter. Otherwise, it seems to me
Azerbaijan may be removed from the discussions becoming a country
manipulated on this issue by two powers. I think it is very important
to define priorities and interests in such negotiations. Most of
post-Soviet countries, CIS countries, failed to demonstrate their key
role in the talks on their security and lost from it. So, it is
always very important to emphasize Azerbaijan’s national interests
and to proceed from the very national interest, regardless whether
Americans or Russians offer and what they offer. I believe Americans
will accept Russians’ offer on to some extent joint exploitation of
Gabala radar station for joint tracing missiles. But, on the other
hand, that will in no way cancel US’s plans on deployment of
anti-missile defence elements in East Europe. In such situation
Russia will end up losing, for Americans will accept one part of
President Putin’s proposal, rejecting the other. Given Russia’s
strategic goals to reject anti-missile defence elements outwards its
territory, it can happen so that after 2012 Americans will receive
the opportunity to exploit the radar station in Azerbaijan
independently. Anyway, the United States has serious apprehension in
this connection. Both Pentagon and the US State Department say
Azerbaijan is too close to Iran, and that the radar station will not
resolve the pile of the problems Americans initially wanted to solve
through East Europe, and thirdly, how it will affect South Caucasus’
security, whether it will fortify or weaken Azerbaijan in its
confrontation with Armenia, how deep Azerbaijan will go in the
strategic partnership with the Unites States, and whether that will
complicate Azerbaijani-Russian relations. American experts have
questions regarding the above-listed problems, but there are no
definite answers for them yet. I think the issue is very important
for Azerbaijan, because in many respects it will determine
geopolitical development of the country in the foreseeable future.
Azerbaijan may win a lot in this issue in strategic standpoint, but
to lose in tactical aspect, although it can be vice versa. So it is
very important to properly define the priorities and national
interests. Otherwise, the interest many countries have for Azerbaijan
may vanish or Azerbaijan may become a discord point, which is
inadmissible. It also cannot be tolerated that Azerbaijan should
become a sort of Georgia in Russia-US relations, from which the same
Georgia loses most of all. It might be advisable for Azerbaijan to
become a concord point rather than a discord point between Russia and
the Unites States. So, solution of the problem should be completely
up on sovereign Azerbaijan.

Question: How much will the United States penetrate into Azerbaijan
after 2012 through renting Gabala radar station, given recognition of
`Armenian genocide’ by US Congress and its rather passive position in
settling Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict?

Answer: A new round of tensions on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not
ruled out. That will happen also due to the fact that the passive
negotiations within the framework of OSCE Minks Group give no results
and cause great fatigue. I think Americans understand that any
intensification of relations with Azerbaijan will shift the power
balance in South Caucasus, particularly considering Nagorno-Karabakh.
This fact stops many people. On the other hand, in case the US
Congress recognizes `Armenian genocide’, the relationships between
the United States and Turkey, US’s important partner in the region,
will be undermined. It is the first time the United States go so far
with recognizing this genocide. The issue was put for discussion
every year and was rejected due to different reasons – juridical,
historical, military, and so on. The issue as it is faces heavy
resistance from the US State Department, Pentagon, and Bush’s
administration. But the Congress more cares for other issues, such as
the United States’ image. Basically, that is the result of the
struggle among lobby organizations – Turkish, Azerbaijani, and
Armenian – around Washington and the Congress. Thus, it comes so that
at the final stage Armenian efforts gave some good results, though
for many years Armenian organizations were not a success on this
issue. That is an important issue which may change situation for the
United States, particularly in that region, and the country will face
definite problems.