Lragir, Armenia
Oct 13 2007

IF DECISION IS MADE, EVEN THE UNIVERSE CANNOT INFLUENCE IT

Of the likely presidential candidates Levon Ter-Petrosyan is believed
to be an obstacle to Serge Sargsyan’s election. On October 12
reporters asked Andranik Mihranyan, a Moscow-based political
scientist, who was hosted at the National Press Club, about his
thoughts on who stands better chance to win, Serge Sargsyan or
Ter-Petrosyan in case Ter-Petrosyan is nominated.

`I certainly think that if Serge Sargsyan is nominated, he has a much
bigger resource, not only administrative but also information,
finance, and so on. It is normal when a person has been in politics
for about 20 years and proceeded from one stage to the other, and is
moving up the scale. I mean the victory of the Republican Party in
the parliamentary election. Now we need to add together all the
resources. Judging by the outcome of the parliamentary election, we
have nothing else to judge, it suggests that Serge Sargsyan has more
possibility and chance,’ Andranik Mihranyan says adding that the
chance grows if the Bargavach Hayastan Party supports him, and the
coalition has made such an agreement.

`There is inertia, there is structure, there are political forces
which are in balance and which would not like to have the balance
change,’ Andranik Mihranyan says. As to Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the
political scientist thinks Ter-Petrosyan’s chance is to bring
together the opposition. `If he were able to bring together all the
opposition forces and be their candidate and also propose a program
which would cheer up people who have got used to solving their
problems outside the political sphere, a situation will occur which
will make competition sharper, in other words, an automatic victory
will be impossible. However, if many forces run in the election, and
Levon Ter-Petrosyan is not viewed by people as the sole opposition, I
think despite my deep respect, I think in this case he will stand
little chance. I am not inventing America because Levon Ter-Petrosyan
did not state to run in the election to win which means he is
cautious and sober and he needs to weigh his chances,’ Andranik
Mihranyan says.

As to support for both candidates abroad, namely in the United States
and Russia, especially in the context that Serge Sargsyan is viewed
as Russia’s candidate, and Levon Ter-Petrosyan is viewed as the
candidate of the West, Andranik Mihranyan thinks the internal
situation will matter in the presidential election more than support
from the outside. `Even if the universe interferes, if there are no
sufficient conditions inside the country, it will influence, but the
internal factors will be deciding,’ Andranik Mihranyan says.

He says it would be ingenuous to think Serge Sargsyan is Russia’s
candidate and Ter-Petrosyan is Washington’s. Mihranyan says both have
equally good relations with both Russia and the West. `For instance,
I remember when I was member of Yeltzin’s presidential council, I had
meetings, I saw the attitude of the Russian government towards the
Armenian president. Those were excellent opportunities. At the same
time, in that difficult situation the relations with Washington were
quite normal and excellent. The same is today,’ Andranik Mihranyan
says, adding that like Ter-Petrosyan then, Serge Sargsyan now has
excellent relations with both Moscow and the West. `For instance,
Serge Sargsyan’s visit to Moscow and meeting with Prime Minister
Zubkov, who is a likely presidential candidate, I think, was highly
successful. Excellent relations. Now as far as I know, I will learn
more detail from my meeting with Serge Sargsyan, but as far as I
know, he is planning to visit Paris, to meet with Sarkosi, to visit
Washington, to meet with Cheney, I don’t know, with Condoleezza Rice,
I don’t know, maybe even with Bush,’ Andranik Mihranyan says.
According to him, no Armenian activist, no matter what party he
affiliates with, can be a soldier of one country or another.

Andranik Mihranyan says he does not know the present attitude of the
Russian political circles toward Levon Ter-Petrosyan, and he does not
deny his own importance in shaping it as soon as he returns to Moscow
and shares his impressions with the Russian elite. `In some sense, an
opinion will be shaped but I don’t think that the opinion remains,
but I don’t think it will be done crudely. Although you also know
under Levon Ter-Petrosyan the opposition came to Moscow and said they
are pro-Russian, the rest are anti-Russian, and asked for help to
come to power. Under this government other people come and say the
rest are anti-Russian and ask for help to come to power. If the
acting government keeps the arrangements, there is no need to change.
By the way, Levon Ter-Petrosyan said in our meeting that people get
acquainted, in the course of years, personally, in other ways, now it
should be changed, you need to think who this person is, what other
team should come,’ Andranik Mihranyan says referring to the year 2003
when he talked to Voloshin, head of the Russian president
administration, about the Russian candidate of Armenian president. `I
asked Mr. Voloshin whom Russia supports. He said we endorse Kocharyan
because he said he is not doing anything extraordinary to make us
think anyone else would be better than he,’ Andranik Mihranyan says.