Karabakh Open
Oct 13 2007

Karabakh is a major political force for Armenia

The visit of the first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan comes
as evidence that Karabakh is not just an important factor for Armenia
but is also becoming a political force. After the meeting with one of
his likely opponents and supporters Vazgen Manukyan Levon
Ter-Petrosyan, one of the likely Armenian presidential candidates,
headed for Stepanakert.

Nobody learned about what the presidents of Armenia and Karabakh had
talked. Most probably, however, they talked not only about the
settlement of Karabakh but also Karabakh’s support for Levon
Ter-Petrosyan in the upcoming Armenian presidential election.
Although the people of Karabakh do not vote in Armenia, their
disposition is important.

No doubt, the Karabakh issue has been discussed. It is obvious that
Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s resignation is related to his stance on the
Karabakh issue. The ex-president has not spelled out his stance on
the settlement of the Karabakh conflict in the new geopolitical
setting but it obviously has not changed much since 1996. Levon
Ter-Petrosyan thinks Armenia will not be able to resist to the world
and reach total victory over the Karabakh issue without any
concession. His stance is perhaps closer to that of the international
mediators who point to self-determination of Karabakh within its
pre-war borders, return of refugees and territories around the former
Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region.

However, despite being realistic, Levon Ter-Petrosyan realizes that
this stance cannot be perceived by the Armenian society, moreover by
Karabakh for which every detail of the Karabakh settlement is a
matter of life and death. Therefore, the ex-president needed to talk
to the president of Karabakh to synchronize their stances.
Unfortunately, it did not become known to public whether they
succeeded or failed.

Karabakh is a major political factor in the sense that the president
and the prime minister of Armenia who is aspiring to presidency come
from Karabakh. They continue to have an important role in the
political life of Karabakh. Moreover, the outcome of elections in
Karabakh also depends on the stance of the Armenian government,
therefore the Karabakh government owes to their Armenian counterparts
in parts.

Over the past decade, the `rule of Karabakhis’ in Armenia has
regularly sparked anti-Karabakh backlash in Armenia. A person who
wants who will be running in the election race with the `Karabakhi’
candidate has two ways – to play on the anti-Karabakh moods of people
or to try to set the Karabakh government against the Armenian
government. It is not known which of these ways Levon Ter-Petrosyan
has chosen, but obviously the factor of Karabakh will be essential in
the upcoming election.

Interestingly, on October 13 another likely presidential candidate,
the Armenian prime minister Serge Sargsyan arrives in Karabakh.