Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia
Oct 13 2007

ONE CANNOT PAY DIVIDENDS ON THE WAVE OF PROTEST

Interview with the Director of `Sociometer’ Independent
Sociological Center Aharon Adibekyan.

` Mr. Adibekyan, to what extent is the electorate interested in
the internal political developments and what is their disposition
towards the forthcoming elections.’
` Of course it would have been an exaggeration to claim that the
electorate is extremely interested in the current political
developments. But still there is a certain part of society that is
always active, which makes up the ½ of the electorate. They are more
interested in the publications and usually follow the internal
political developments, discuss it with their colleagues and
neighbors. In general in this period, in the middle of autumn and
before winter people are deeply indulged in their everyday problems.
They are getting prepared for winter, install heating system in their
flats, etc.
The exclusivity of the forthcoming presidential elections is that
on the eve of New Year holidays there will be no political
activeness. And after the middle of January people won’t have time to
full speed. Political activeness will be noticed only in November,
when the parties convene congresses and nominate candidacies for
presidency. If by the end of the current year opposition manages to
come to a decision on the united candidate, the main stage of the
election campaign will draw to a close, at the end of January and in
the beginning of February.
This situation is quite beneficial for the government camp,
because their organizational and administrative resource is always
active. I have no idea whether the opposition has time and means for
serious rivalry, because in winter it will be very difficult to meet
people and to use paid TV airtime.’
‘How would you evaluate the social state of the electorate?’
`The investigations of our center attest that at least the 2/3 of
our population can satisfy their everyday demands. All the others
have serious social problems. From 5-7% are in poverty. This is the
picture of our survey, ordered by UNO, based on the subjective
evaluation of 3600 families. It turns out that during the recent
years 65 – 70% of our population has registered progress in their
private economic situation. The evaluation of 30-35% is pessimistic,
because they have certain problems.
Anyhow the politically active part of society is the middle class.
Those who are in poverty are usually not interested in politics. The
same is in the whole world. They are despaired and they have no hope
that elections will change anything in their lives. But these people
are easily corruptible. Usually those who live in welfare make a
political choice.
Luckily at present only 2 or 3 from ten voters will agree to
apolitical arrangements and hand over their votes. From 8-9 are
serious towards the elections. This testifies to the fact that we are
at the second stage of democratic growth. From now on not the
administrative but organizational resource will win the elections –
those who work continuously and not from election to election.
Another important factor is to run for all levels of elections.
Political trade is implemented in all the countries of the world and
it is the inseparable part of democratic elections. But our
opposition hasn’t grown enough to run for the local self-governmental
elections and thus strengthen its social bases. Today it is
impossible to pay political dividends on the wave of protest. Those
who do this during the forthcoming elections will definitely lose.’
‘Mr. Adibekyan don’t you think that the search for the united
candidate is due to the wave of protest. Do you mean the election
prospect of L.T.P. and others is already predictable?
‘The apple of discord of the elections is the 40% of the voters
who have never voted for the authority. Some part of the other 60%
that were disapproved of the results of the parliamentary elections
can possibly join this 40%. But traditionally even in this 40% that
support opposition there can be people who are disapproved of the
activity of the same opposition and can vote for the pro-governmental
powers.
Parliamentary election returns displayed that 25% of the
pro-opposition electorate doesn’t trust the pro-opposition leaders.
They don’t believe that opposition will form a political power that
someone will finally unite and lead them. The reason is, by now they
haven’t finished their search for the united candidate. There is no
leader among them who can prove by his work that he is the united
candidate. All are vulnerable. Levon will be accused of his deeds in
the 1990-ies and his 10 years’ indifference. Leader of `Orinats
Yerkir’ party is considered a traitor. All the others have little
caliber and can’t lead the country.

HARUTYUN GEVORGYAN

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress