U.S.-Turkish relations being pushed down a slippery slope

Vancouver Sun, Canada
Oct 12 2007

U.S.-Turkish relations being pushed down a slippery slope

Jonathan Manthorpe, Vancouver Sun
Published: Friday, October 12, 2007

The gods of bad timing seem determined to wreck relations between the
United States and Turkey, which have been under stress and strain
since Ankara’s vehement objection to the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

And the gods of democracy, who compel elected politicians to dance
for a braying public no matter how ill-considered the demands, have
their share of blame.

In all likelihood cooler heads in Washington and Ankara will come
into play once the public clamour has died down.

But relations between Washington and Turkey, its ally in the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization and the only largely Muslim sectarian
state with which it has significant alliances, could well get jumbled
beyond unravelling in the next few days. The implications are dire
for increased violence in Iraq, one of Turkey’s southern neighbours,
the stability of the Middle East and even the future of NATO.

The convergence of two events in the past few days have set off the
current storm which began to gather when Turkey refused to allow U.S.
forces to use its territory as a jumping-off pad for the Iraq
invasion.

One is highly charged public anger in Turkey about the killing a few
days ago of 13 of its soldiers by fighters from the Kurdistan Workers
Party (PKK).

This separatist movement has been fighting for more than 20 years to
create an independent Kurdish nation. About 40,000 people have died.

Kurds make up about 20 per cent of Turkey’s population and live
mostly in the east of the country. Their ethnic brethren also live in
and control much of neighbouring northern Iraq.

Ankara has good evidence to think that PKK fighters are using safe
havens in northern Iraq to make cross-border forays into Turkey.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has been forced by public
opinion to revive a threat he made after similar cross-border attacks
in May. Next week he will put before parliament a resolution
authorizing Turkish troops to attack PKK bases in Iraq.

In May he was able, as he undoubtedly wished, to finesse the
situation behind the curtains. He backed down in return for
Washington pressing the administration of the Kurdish region of Iraq,
such as it is, to restrain the PKK.

Similar behind-the-scenes play may not be possible this time because
of the bad timing of a silly piece of hubristic interference by the
U.S. Congress House foreign relations committee.

On Wednesday this committee voted 27 to 21 that the deaths of several
thousands of Armenian people between 1914 and 1918, in what was then
the Turkish Ottoman empire, should be classified as a genocide.

There is still no authoritative account of what happened to the
Armenians. Turkish historians say about 200,000 people died as a
result of famine, disease and the predations of the Ottoman army.
Armenian historians say two million people were killed, primarily in
massacres by Ottoman troops.

Even four generations later it remains a hugely emotional issue and
Turkey has not helped itself. In addition to minimizing the event, it
continues to imprison writers for "insulting the Turkish Republic"
when they call the Armenians’ deaths a genocide.

President George W. Bush and senior administration members have
condemned the motion by the foreign relations committee, but the
resolution is likely to come before the full House before the U.S.
Thanksgiving holiday.

It will most probably pass because the Armenian-American lobby is
well organized and powerful, a strong influence on members of
Congress in California, New Jersey and Michigan with an election year
just over the horizon.

It should be noted in passing that the Canadian Parliament in 2004
also succumbed to Armenian lobbying and passed a resolution
denouncing modern Turkey for the events of four generations ago.

The immediate danger is if Turkey sends troops into Kurdish northern
Iraq to root out PKK camps. This would not only destabilize the only
part of Iraq where there is relative peace, it could conceivably see
two NATO allies, Turkey and the U.S., looking at each other over
gunsights.

In a further goad to the situation, a Turkish court on Thursday gave
two Turkish Kurd writers one-year suspended prison sentences for
claiming there was an Armenian genocide.

Sun International Affairs Columnist

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