AZERBAIJAN IN PANIC
Vardan Grigoryan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily
Oct 16 2007
Armenia

Baku is more anxious than Ankara

The adoption of Resolution # 106 recognizing the Armenian Genocide
by the US House of Foreign Affairs Committee has given rise to such
pessimistic moods in Baku that onlookers may get the impression
that the decision made by the world’s number 1 superpower concerns
Azerbaijan and not Turkey.

The October 12 statement of Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry says that
the official Baku "condemns the decision, considering it wrong and
subjective and finds that the Resolution will have a negative impact
on the world’s current global and regional processes."

Together with this traditional step of lending a helping hand to their
elder brother, the Azerbaijani politicians and political scientists
are trying to predict through their publications the probability of
the House of Representatives’ adopting Resolution # 106 as well as
the new challenges awaiting Turkey and Azerbaijan as a result.

The majority of the Azerbaijani experts and politicians are convinced
that there is in the near future a very little likelihood of torpedoing
Resolution # 106 in Congress.

This opinion was particularly expressed by Assim Mollazade, a Mili
Ìajlis Deputy, whereas Jahid Orouj, member of the Defense and Security
Committee even managed to conclude that Turkey has already put up
with the idea of defeat. Moreover, he believes that "Azerbaijan is
expressing its counteraction towards this issue in a more furious
manner than Turkey."

The Azerbaijani political scientists have arrived at the conclusion
that Armenia will in the near future use Resolution # 106 not only
against Turkey but also against Azerbaijan in the Karabakh peace
process.

With regard to the prospect awaiting Turkey, their brother nation,
the Azerbaijani politicians and political scientists advance the
following main postulates: First: the adoption of Resolution # 106
by the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives is
the result of a mutually agreed policy, because as claimed by the
former Azerbaijani State Secretary Vafa Gulazade, George Bush and
Condoleezza Rice "are both good actors."

Second: such a step is a serious blow to Turkey’s international
reputation and testifies to the fact that the United States no longer
considers the country as its irreplaceable strategic partner.

Moreover, in the context of the programs to be implemented in Iraq, the
United States views Turkey as a principal rival, since it is fearful of
the extensive military operations directed against the Iraqi Kurdistan.

Third: it is quite probable that the United States may, in the near
future, do its best for Turkey to plunge into the Iraqi Kurdistan
for a long time, become internationally isolated and find itself in
a deep financial-economic crisis.

Fourth: the current American policy aimed at discrediting and weakening
Turkey has a final goal to split the country into smaller national
states, so likewise Russia assisted Armenia in the process of solving
the Karabakh issue, the United States may do the same in the near
future, to make some part of the Turkish territory annex Armenia.

Together with this kind of strictly gloomy predictions, the Azerbaijani
politicians and political scientists arrive at the realistic conclusion
that in order to make a serious counteraction to the US policy,
Turkey may currently liven up its cooperation with Russia and Iran to
a certain extent; however, in strategic terms, the country is still
unable to turn to their side, as it has chosen the path of European
integration. J. Orouj, Deputy of the Azerbaijani Milli Majlis has to
confess on this occasion that "Despite Ankara’s rough statements, I
don’t think it will turn its back upon Washington. And the statements
will remain merely as words. The Turkish people have chosen the course
of European integration, and there is no way back."

Thus, the Azerbaijani politicians and political scientists are making
serious and realistic calculations both with regard to the probability
of the adoption Resolution # 106 and the possibility of its negative
impact on the Turkish-Azerbaijani relations.

Let’s confess that on this plane the pessimism of the Azerbaijani
side is now greater than the optimism observed among our politicians
and political scientists. This testifies to the fact that the Armenian
political thought is still unable to make a material estimation of the
causes of the achievements gained on the international arena and the
new prospects deriving thereof and opening a new way for our country
and our people.

–Boundary_(ID_yIGNYOXBaObzDLnhDYbP2A)–

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress