THE LONG SHADOW OVER TURKEY

The Japan Times
October 16, 2007, Tuesday

Domestic politics once again threatens to roil U.S. relations with a
key ally. This time the offended nation is Turkey, which is angered
and insulted by a U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs
Committee vote to label as genocide the deaths of Armenians killed
in Turkey nearly a century ago. More troubling still, however, is
the prospect of Ankara venting its anger by attacking rebel Kurds in
northern Iraq and unleashing yet more violence on an already strained
and unstable region.

About 1.5 million Armenians were killed by Ottoman Turks around
the time of World War I. This horrific event remains shrouded in
controversy, not least because the Turkish government insists that
no such mass killing occurred.

Rather, it claims the deaths were the result of chaos that accompanied
the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and that the violence claimed the
lives of many Turks as well. Armenians are not convinced by the Turkish
claim and the issue has hung over relations between the two countries.

Within the United States, the Armenian lobby has pushed for years for
recognition of this injustice as well. Those hopes were frustrated
by recognition that such a move would complicate, if not damage,
Washington’s relations with Ankara, a key ally in the Muslim world and
one in a critical geostrategic location. However, relations between
this White House and Congress have deteriorated to the point where
legislators – especially those in the Democratic Party – are no longer
inclined to afford President George W. Bush much deference.

Neither a presidential statement that noted "We all deeply regret
the tragic suffering of the Armenian people that began in 1915"
– but omitted the word "genocide"- nor a warning by Mr. Bush that
passage of the nonbinding resolution "would do great harm to our
relations with a key ally in NATO and in the global war on terror"
deterred lawmakers. The House Foreign Affairs Committee voted 27-21
to label the deaths of Armenians a century ago as genocide. The
White House is still pressing to put off a vote by the full House,
but that effort is unlikely to succeed.

Turkey reacted as predicted. The country’s ambassador to the
U.S. was recalled, although the move is likely to be temporary. The
U.S. ambassador to Turkey was told by the Foreign Ministry of Turkish
"unease" over the resolution. Turkey’s president, Mr. Abdullah Gul,
criticized the decision to move toward a vote by the full House. The
head of Turkey’s navy canceled a trip to the U.S.

Those reactions were just for starters. U.S. officials are now
worried about two additional moves that could cause considerably
more trouble. The first would be a decision to suspend or scale back
cooperation with the U.S. in Iraq. Currently, about 70 percent of
all air cargo sent to Iraq transits Turkey and its airspace, as does
about one-third of all fuel used by the U.S. military. Much of the
new equipment used by U.S. forces goes through Turkey, and U.S. bases
get water and other supplies by land via Turkish truckers.

While a decision to end that cooperation would squeeze U.S. forces –
and make it more difficult for the coalition to help stabilize Iraq –
a second decision could actively contribute to instability. Turkey
has for three decades fought Kurdish rebels who have protested
discrimination against their people. Those rebels seek to create an
ethnic homeland for Kurds, and an estimated 30,000 lives have been
lost in the fight. Kurds are spread across the Middle East, but there
is a concentration in northern Iraq, where they have established a
quasi-autonomous zone that they govern and which has been a relatively
peaceful area during the disintegration of the rest of Iraq.

Ankara claims the zone is also a safe haven for an estimated 3,000
members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is fighting to
set up a Kurdish homeland. Those rebels have become increasingly
aggressive. Recently, they have launched several attacks against
Turkish targets, killing 15 Turkish soldiers. Earlier, the PKK
had attacked a civilian bus with automatic weapons fire, killing 13
civilians, including a child. Turkey concluded an agreement last month
with the Baghdad government to halt the attacks, but plainly that has
failed. Now, the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
is prepared to take matters into its own hands. It will present
a resolution to Parliament shortly that will authorize assaults
into Iraq against the guerrillas. Fighting in northern Iraq could
destabilize the one region that has been relatively peaceful.

The House vote adds fuel to the Turkish fire, increasing anger and
feelings of neglect by an ally. It certainly diminishes U.S. influence
over decision making in Ankara. Such is the price to pay for trying
to recognize a horrible tragedy of a century ago.