TURKEY SAYS IRAQ INCURSION NOT IMMEDIATE
By Christopher Torchia

The Associated Press
Oct 16 2007

ISTANBUL, Turkey (AP) – Turkey’s premier indicated Tuesday that an
offensive against Kurdish rebels based in northern Iraq would not
immediately follow the expected go-ahead from Parliament, as oil
prices soared amid international calls for restraint.

The Iraqi government urged Turkey not to send troops across the
border to pursue separatist Kurds in mountain hideouts, calling for
"a diplomatic solution" to tensions that have raised fears of a new
front in the Iraq war.

Tareq al-Hashemi, one of Iraq’s two vice presidents, flew to Ankara
and met with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and other Turkish
officials before a Parliament vote Wednesday that is widely expected
to authorize cross-border attacks during the next year.

"The passage of the motion in Parliament does not mean that an
operation will be carried out at once," Erdogan said. "Turkey would
act with common sense and determination when necessary and when the
time is ripe."

Public anger over attacks by Kurdish guerrillas is running high, but
government leaders know that two dozen military campaigns into Iraq
since the 1980s failed to eradicate the rebel Kurdistan Workers’ Party,
or PKK. And a cross-border attack could strain ties with the U.S., a
NATO ally that opposes any disruption of its efforts to stabilize Iraq.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose $1.94 a barrel to $87.07
Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange after hitting a record
$88.20. Traders attributed the surge partly to concerns that Turkish
military action might disrupt Mideast crude oil supplies.

"Whenever there is any escalation in political tensions in the Middle
East, oil markets become concerned," said David Moore, a commodity
strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. "There is
production and there are pipelines that people worry may be affected
if there are any issues in Iraq."

The potential harm to Turkey’s economy, which has recovered strongly
from an economic crisis in 2001, is probably another factor in the
government’s deliberations on whether to send troops into Iraq.

Gazi Ercel, a former central bank governor, said an offensive could
trigger falls in the Turkish stock market and currency and cause
uneasiness among foreign investors about whether Turkey is a "risky
place" to do business.

The head of the United Nation’s refugee agency warned that a Turkish
incursion into Iraq could exacerbate what is already the Middle’s
East’s worst refugee crisis since the 1940s.

"I can only express our very deep concern about any development that
might lead to meaningful displacements of populations in that sensitive
area," said Antonio Guterres, the U.N. high commissioner for refugees.

Guterres said violence in Iraq has forced 4 million Iraqis to flee
their homes and an offensive into the Kurdish-controlled north would
upset one of Iraq’s few relatively stable areas.

There has been speculation Turkey’s government sought approval for
an offensive as a way to pressure U.S. and Iraqi authorities to move
against Turkish Kurd rebels operating from northern Iraq.

On Tuesday, Erdogan repeated his calls for a crackdown, saying the
Kurdish regional administration in northern Iraq should "build a
thick wall between itself and terrorist organizations."

Ali al-Dabbagh, spokesman for Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki,
said Iraq’s government would not tolerate violence from the separatist
rebels, but he urged Turkey to "seek a diplomatic solution and not
a military one in dealing with the terrorist threats that target
it." Al-Maliki’s office said a high-level political and security team
would go to Turkey for talks later this week.

A Turkish soldier was killed Tuesday when he stepped on a land mine
believed to have been planted by Kurdish rebels near the southeastern
Turkish city of Bingol, local authorities said.

PKK rebels have been fighting for autonomy in Turkey’s
Kurdish-dominated southeast since 1984 in a conflict that has killed
thousands of people.

Turkey has complained about what it considers a lack of U.S. support
against the PKK, which has been labeled a terrorist group by
Washington.

Turkish frustration with America has intensified because of another
dispute: a congressional move toward declaring as a genocide the
killing of up to 1.5 million Armenians by Turks during World War I.

Turkey denies there was a systematic campaign to eliminate Armenians,
saying the deaths came during the civil unrest that accompanied the
collapse of the Ottoman Empire.

President Bush is strongly urging Congress not to pass the resolution
amid worries Turkey might retaliate by cutting off key supply routes
used by U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Egemen Bagis, a foreign policy adviser to Erdogan, said Tuesday that
Turkey should not punish the Bush administration if the resolution
passes. He said it should react against those in Congress backing the
measure as well as impose sanctions against Armenia for supporting it.

Associated Press writers Selcan Hacaoglu and Suzan Fraser in Ankara
contributed to this report.