Explosive potential of Turkish raid

As Turkey’s parliament considers military action against Kurdish
guerrillas in northern Iraq, BBC world affairs correspondent Nick
Childs looks at the tensions the move is causing and the possible
regional implications of military action.

Already, ahead of time, the move in the Turkish parliament is
prompting a new flurry of diplomacy – and maybe that is the main
intention.

But Ankara knows Iraq’s central government has little clout in the
largely autonomous Kurdish north of the country.

The Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has played down the
prospect of any imminent action. Western military sources also say
there are no obvious preparations under way for anything big.

But such action would be popular in Turkey. Any major incursion would
clearly have significant implications.

The Turkish military might limit itself to small raids, even possibly
just air strikes, which might have limited repercussions.

American anxiety

Yet they too would carry risks. Anything which looked like presenting
a threat to the city of Kirkuk and its nearby oilfields could provoke
a major crisis, which could suck in Iraqi forces, the Americans, maybe
even the Iranians.

Clearly, Washington is worried. It does not have the resources to take
on further military challenges in Iraq. It is also hugely dependent on
Turkish support for its presence there anyway.

And Turkish-US relations are already going through a very difficult
phase, complicated by a vote in a US congressional committee
condemning the mass killing of Armenians in Turkey in World War I as
genocide.

Perhaps conscious of the risk of a rupture in relations between
Washington and Ankara, support for the motion in Congress now seems to
be waning.

It is a complicated set of calculations for the authorities in Ankara,
too, as they try to position themselves in what is a region in flux.

Published: 2007/10/17 11:27:46 GMT

(c) BBC MMVII

Source: 30.stm