Support Wanes in House for Genocide Vote

By CARL HULSE
The New York Times

WASHINGTON, Oct. 16 – Worried about antagonizing Turkish leaders,
House members from both parties have begun to withdraw their support
from a resolution backed by the Democratic leadership that would
condemn as genocide the mass killings of Armenians nearly a century
ago.

Almost a dozen lawmakers had shifted against the measure in a 24-hour
period ending Tuesday night, accelerating a sudden exodus that has
cast deep doubt over the measure’s prospects. Some made clear that
they were heeding warnings from the White House, which has called the
measure dangerously provocative, and >From the Turkish government,
which has said House passage would prompt Turkey to reconsider its
ties to the United States, including logistical support for the Iraq
war.

Until Tuesday, the measure appeared on a path to House passage, with
strong support from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. It was approved last
week by the House Foreign Affairs Committee. But by Tuesday evening, a
group of senior House Democrats had made it known that they were
planning to ask the leadership to drop plans for a vote on the
measure.

`Turkey obviously feels they are getting poked in the eye over
something that happened a century ago and maybe this isn’t a good time
to be doing that,’ said Representative Allen Boyd, a Florida Democrat
who dropped his sponsorship of the resolution on Monday night.

Others who took the same action said that, while they deplored the
mass killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire, the modern-day
consequences in the Middle East could not be overlooked.

`We simply cannot allow the grievances of the past, as real as they
may be, to in any way derail our efforts to prevent further atrocities
for future history books,’ said Representative Wally Herger,
Republican of California.

Representative Mike Ross, Democrat of Arkansas, said, `I think it is a
good resolution and horrible timing.’

The Turkish government has lobbied heavily against the resolution,
which is nonbinding and largely symbolic. But lawmakers attributed
the erosion in support mainly to fears about a potential Turkish
decision to deny American access to critical military facilities in
that nation and its threat to move forces into northern Iraq.

`This vote came face to face with the reality on the ground in that
region of the world,’ said Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois,
the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus and an opponent of the
resolution.

The Bush administration and top American generals have been vocal in
warning that passage of the resolution could cause great harm to the
American war effort in Iraq and have put significant pressure on
Republicans to abandon their support for the measure. President Bush
called Ms. Pelosi on Tuesday and asked her to prevent a floor vote.

`The president and the speaker exchanged candid views on the subject
and the speaker explained the strong bipartisan support in the House
for the resolution,’ said Brendan Daly, a spokesman for Ms. Pelosi.

The Democratic leadership was examining the exact level of that
support to gauge its next step, but lawmakers and officials said it
was now unclear whether the resolution could be approved, given
Republican resistance and Democratic defections. `We will have to
determine where everyone is,’ said Representative Steny H. Hoyer of
Maryland, the majority leader.

Ms. Pelosi, who has promised a vote on the resolution if it cleared
the committee, said she was leaving it to its chief backers to round
up votes. `I have never known a count,’ she said.

Backers of the resolution, which has the fervent support of the
Armenian-American community, described the shift as slight and
attributed it to the intense lobbying by the Turkish government, the
administration and their allies. They said they would try to change
the minds of some of those who were wavering.

`This is what happens when you are up against a very sophisticated
multimillion-dollar campaign,’ said Representative Brad Sherman,
Democrat of California, who chided the Turkish government. `Since when
has it become fashionable for friends to threaten friends?’

But he acknowledged there was little margin of error for backers of
the resolution, which had once boasted 225 co-sponsors. `If the vote
were held today, I would not want to bet my house on the outcome,’ he
said.

Mr. Sherman and others noted that at the start of the war Turkey had
refused to let American forces operate >From its territory and that
its intentions toward the northern border of Iraq clearly captured the
attention of Congress.

American military officials in Iraq and in Washington said Tuesday
they were concerned about possible Turkish military raids into
northern Iraq against the Kurdish Workers Party, an ethnic separatist
movement also known as the P.K.K.

At the moment, they said, they did not see many indications that the
Turkish military was preparing for a large-scale incursion into the
insurgents’ mountainous strongholds and expressed hope that diplomatic
efforts under way between Iraqi and Turkish officials would ease the
crisis, which was sparked by a wave of attacks in eastern Turkey that
its government has blamed on the separatists.

`We see no signs that there’s anything imminent by Turkey,’ said one
senior military officer, speaking on condition of anonymity because he
was discussing military contingency planning. `So there’s time for the
diplomacy to work for a few more days, if not weeks.’ But, he added,
the situation could get `ugly’ if Turkey sent troops across the border
and they clashed with Kurdish militias or Iraqi forces.

The biggest fear, several former officials said, is that Turkish
forces could push past the border and head for Kirkuk. Such a move
could force Iraq to respond and the United States to mediate between
two allies, and decide whether to intervene. Such a crisis could also
draw in Iran, which has also had growing problems with Kurdish groups
crossing into its territory from Iraq.

In addition to the potential movement of Turkish forces, opponents of
the resolution continued to point to Turkey’s role as a staging area
for moving American military supplies into Iraq.

`This happened a long time ago and I don’t know whether it was a
massacre or a genocide, that is beside the point,’ said Representative
John P. Murtha, the Pennsylvania Democrat who is urging Ms. Pelosi to
keep the resolution from the floor. `The point is, we have to deal
with today’s world.’

While the resolution enjoyed more than enough support to pass earlier
this year, about two dozen lawmakers have removed their names from the
official list of sponsors in recent weeks as the vote grew more likely
and the reservations grew more pronounced.

`I think there was genocide in Turkey in 1915 but I am gravely
concerned about the timing,’ said Representative Jane Harman, a
California Democrat. She said she would remain a co-sponsor of the
resolution but at the moment would oppose it reached the floor.

Representative Doug Lamborn, a Colorado Republican who dropped his
backing on Tuesday, said: `Nothing changes the fact that mass killings
and unspeakable acts of brutality occurred. However, passing this
nonbinding resolution at this critical time would be a destabilizing
action when the United States needs the help of its allies, including
Turkey, in fighting the global war on terror.’

David S. Cloud contributed reporting.