Dar Al-Hayat, Lebanon
Oct 19 2007
Keep Your Heads Down
Walid Choucair Al-Hayat – 19/10/07//
When both the regional and international arenas enter a period of
realignments and recalculations, smaller regional powers had better
take notice and keep their heads down lest they fall victim to the
game of nations. This is doubly true for countries at the mercy of
regional currents and conflicts
When Turkey’s adopts a policy towards the Kurdish Workers’ Party that
clashes with America’s, condemns the US Congress’ recognition of its
massacre of Armenians, and prepares for an incursion into Iraq, the
Party had better keep its head down in anticipation of the Turkish
incursion. It ought to be wary of the consent of Syria, the U.S. and
Iraq to Turkey’s decision. Things become negotiable.
When Syria bets on its rapprochement with Ankara helping it avoid
Israeli attacks like that of September 6, or defuse tensions with
Israel and banish the recent specter of war, concerned Lebanese and
Palestinian factions ought to reevaluate the mobilization mandated by
their alliances with Damascus.
When U.S.-Russian tensions escalate over American plans to build a
missile shield based in its Eastern Europe allies – causing Russia to
reevaluate its policies in the Mideast and Caspian sea and leading to
President Vladimir Putin’s historic visit to Tehran – several
regional powers are pleased at the return to times reminiscent of the
Cold War because they anticipate a series of negotiations and prefer
it to a situation of confrontation and war. President George Bush’s
call to Russia to resume negotiations over the missile shield in
exchange for blocking Iran’s nuclear ambitions is just such a
negotiation.
When the U.S. fails to get Israel to soften its position on the
intended outcome of the upcoming Annapolis conference and demands it
of the Palestinians instead, it is aborting the conference before it
begins and giving credence to Iran, which has demanded Arab countries
boycott it. It reopens the way for endless conflict in Palestine,
betraying the Palestinian Authority in its struggle against Hamas as
well as moderate Arab governments who feel that a resolution of this
conflict is integral to resolving other regional crises. It
strengthens the case of those calling for resistance against
Israel… and forces regional powers to take positions inconsistent
with the their position on these conflicts.
Suffice it to say that regional and international realignments are
volatile, and demand the deepest caution and care on the part of
smaller powers.
The powers that ought above all to keep their heads down are those in
Lebanon, be they majority or opposition, because the slightest
misreading or miscalculation – or mistaken reliance on confrontation
or compromise between regional powers – would be fatal.
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