Bloomberg
Oct 19 2007

Pelosi Makes Political Misstep in Reversal on Armenian Genocide

By Laura Litvan and Nicholas Johnston

Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) — The two meetings House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
attended before a vote on a resolution labeling the massacre of
Armenians in Ottoman Turkey a genocide foreshadowed the biggest
political misstep of her speakership.

In the hours before a House panel approved the resolution Oct. 10,
Pelosi was told in a tense meeting with Turkey’s ambassador that the
vote would endanger his country’s alliance with the U.S. She had a
warmer session with an Armenian cleric and representatives of
Armenian-Americans, who have a large presence in her home state of
California. In both, she made clear she intended to bring the
resolution to a full House vote.

Since then, Pelosi, 67, has been in retreat. Her vow to bring the
measure to a vote outraged Turkey, which recalled its ambassador and
threatened to cut off the use of its military bases to resupply U.S.
troops in Iraq. On Oct. 17, Pelosi said it “remains to be seen”
whether the vote would occur after more than a dozen lawmakers pulled
their names from the measure and some Democrats asked her to drop it.

“It’s a good resolution but a horrible time to be considering it on
the House floor,” said Representative Mike Ross of Arkansas, one of
the Democrats who withdrew his support.

“She dug in her heels to find that she didn’t have her members with
her,” said Representative Ray LaHood, an Illinois Republican. “If
you get too far out in front of them, it can be embarrassing.”

Democrats’ Agenda

The turnaround is the first major failure for Pelosi, who has
successfully muscled through the agenda she set out when she became
leader of the Democratic majority in January. This year, the House
has passed a measure calling for a withdrawal of U.S. forces from
Iraq, a minimum-wage increase, a five-year farm bill and a $35
billion expansion of health coverage for children.

Until now, her biggest obstacles had been President George W. Bush’s
veto power — which he used this month to block the children’s
health-care measure — and the inability of Senate Democratic leaders
to overcome Republican opposition.

The controversy also handed Bush and House Republicans an opening to
attack Pelosi’s foreign-policy credentials. “Congress has more
important work to do than antagonizing a democratic ally in the
Muslim world, especially one that’s providing vital support for our
military every day,” Bush said Oct. 17.

Some Democrats say Pelosi couldn’t have anticipated the backlash. Yet
Representative Jack Murtha of Pennsylvania, one of her closest
allies, said he had warned her in February that the resolution could
erode U.S. support in the Middle East. “This is not a way to help us
in an area where we need allies,” Murtha said.

Moral Obligation

Pelosi said Oct. 11 that she decided to advance the legislation
because the U.S. has a moral obligation to take a stand and declare
the World War I-era killings of 1.5 million Armenians genocide.

“There’s never a good time,” Pelosi said, adding that the entire
Democratic leadership team, and a bipartisan coalition comprising
most of the House’s 435 members, supported it.

The reaction was swift. One day after the House Foreign Affairs
Committee approved the resolution, 27-21, Turkey withdrew its
ambassador for consultations, and Turkish legislators on Oct. 17
authorized the use of military force against Kurdish rebels in
northern Iraq, a step that may further destabilize Iraq and disrupt
oil supplies.

Pelosi said Turkey may be using the resolution to justify taking
action in Iraq. “This is about Turkey’s plans,” she said. “This
isn’t about our resolution.”

`Home-State Politics’

The legislation, which has been introduced for decades, often
originates from California lawmakers, said John Pitney, a political
science professor with Claremont McKenna College in Claremont,
California. About 232,000 Armenian Americans live in the state, 54
percent of the U.S. total, according to 2006 Census data.
“Home-state politics is a large portion of it,” Pitney said.

This year’s resolution was co-sponsored by California Democrat Adam
Schiff and Pelosi has said she promised him and other supporters that
they would get a vote if the measure was approved by committee.

When it was approved in committee last week, the resolution had 226
co-sponsors, more that the 218 needed to pass. But by yesterday, more
than 12 co-sponsors had withdrawn their support.

This week, Pelosi backed away from her pledge to advance the bill
this year, saying it would be up to its sponsors to decide whether it
comes up for a vote. Schiff said he would ask her to bring the
measure to the floor only if he has enough votes to win.

Murtha said he is working to persuade Pelosi to drop the matter, and
that as many as 60 Democrats would oppose the resolution and it would
fail any vote of the full House.

“It’s impractical at this point to go forward with it,” Murtha
said.

The dispute has cost Pelosi some credibility, Pitney said. “This is
proving to be a lesson to the leadership to think through the
long-term consequences,” he said. “There’s a great deal of
difference between taking positions in the minority and moving
legislation in the majority.”

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