Asia Times, Hong Kong
Oct 19 2007
US House waffles on genocide
By Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON – Amid rising bilateral tensions with Turkey and strong
White House pressure, the Democratic leadership of the US House of
Representatives is expected to set aside a controversial resolution
recognizing as a "genocide" the mass killings of as many as 1.5
million Armenians in the Ottoman Empire during World War I.
While House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who had vowed to force a floor vote
on the issue in the coming weeks, kept silent on the
matter Thursday, a number of key Democrats suggested that the
symbolic resolution, which passed the House Foreign Affairs Committee
27-21 on a largely party-line vote one week ago, was, for all
practical purposes, dead.
"If it came to the floor today," Representative John Murtha, a close
Pelosi ally who was one of nearly dozen Democratic lawmakers who
withdrew their co-sponsorship of the resolution this week, said late
Wednesday, "it would not pass."
At the same time, Pelosi, a long-time champion of the resolution on
behalf of thousands of Armenian-Americans who live in her northern
California district, also conceded that she was reconsidering her
pledge to bring the resolution to the floor.
If, as now expected, Pelosi withholds the measure until at least next
year, it will mark a major victory for Turkey which, after the House
Committee vote last week, recalled its ambassador here for
"consultations" as the first of a series of possible measures
designed both to convey its displeasure and, if necessary, inflict
serious damage on Washington’s position, especially in Iraq.
Of particular concern has been the possibility that Ankara might
restrict access to its airspace and, in particular, to Incirlik Air
Base in eastern Turkey, the single most important external logistics
air hub for US military operations in Iraq.
Indeed, about 70% of all air cargo sent to Iraq passes through or
crosses Turkey, as does some 30% of the fuel imported to the US
military and virtually of its new, heavily-armored vehicles,
according to the Pentagon.
Turkey severed all military ties with France after its parliament
voted last year to make the denial of the Armenian "genocide" a
crime, and it did nothing to discourage speculation here during the
past week that it would take similar steps if the genocide resolution
went forward.
"Having worked this issue in the last Bush administration
(1989-1993), I don’t think the Turks are bluffing," Pentagon chief
Robert Gates told reporters here Thursday shortly after meeting the
defense minister of Armenia, which has had very rocky relations with
Ankara. Turkey has enforced a virtual blockade against Armenia since
the early 1990.
"I will say again it has potential to do real harm to our troops in
Iraq and would strain – perhaps beyond repair – our relationship with
a key ally in a vital region and in the wider war on terror," added
Gates, who has been the most outspoken cabinet-level official opposed
to the resolution.
The possibility that it might restrict the use by the US military of
Turkish territory and airspace is not the only concern faced by
Washington about Ankara at the moment, however.
Increasingly frustrated by Washington’s failure to either take direct
action against Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) guerrillas or persuade the
Iraqi or Iraqi Kurdistan governments to do so, the Turkish parliament
voted overwhelmingly Wednesday to authorize sending troops into
northern Iraq to attack PKK units based there. The vote was 507 to
19, a margin that may have been inflated as a result of anger over
the genocide resolution.
The PKK, which is considered by the US to be a terrorist group, has
mounted a series of recent deadly actions against targets inside
Turkey in recent weeks. At least 30 Turkish soldiers, police and
civilians have been killed in PKK attacks in just the past two weeks,
according to published reports.
While most analysts here and in Turkey do not expect the government
of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to order a major cross-border operation in
the near future, the fact that the parliament has now authorized such
a move makes the threat far more credible.
Iraqi Kurdistan is the one region in Iraq that has been relatively
stable – and thus has not required the presence of US troops – since
the US occupation of the country began in 2003.
Any significant Turkish incursion, of the kind it carried out
relatively routinely during the 1990s, could plunge the region into
turmoil at a moment when US forces are already overstretched,
according to analysts here who also noted that crude oil futures
jumped to an all-time high of nearly 90 dollars a barrel after
Wednesday’s vote.
Moreover, the peshmerga – the Iraqi Kurdish militia forces that are
nominally part of the Iraqi army and security forces – could well
rally behind the PKK against the Turks in the event of a significant
cross-border attack, others noted. Indeed, thousands of Kurds, mostly
students, reportedly took part in rallies to protest the Turkish
legislation in Irbil, Kurdistan’s capital, Thursday.
It is in this context that mainly Democratic lawmakers who previously
backed the Armenian genocide bill have been reassessing their
position during the last few days.
"We need every ally we can get [in Iraq]," said Murtha, a co-sponsor
of the resolution who has since withdrawn his support. "[Turkey is]
important to our effort in Iraq. We’ve got 160,000 troops in Iraq.
This is important to the US effort in Iraq, period."
"This is not the time to stick our finger in the eyes of the Turks,"
said Congressman Mike Ross, another former co-sponsor who switched
his position this week.
Turkey has been aided as well by an expensive lobbying campaign
organized and led by a former Republican speaker, Robert Livingstone,
and Richard Gephardt, who, as the former Democratic House Leader, had
co-sponsored a similar resolution. They have also been joined by
several key lawmakers considered close to the so-called Israel Lobby,
including the influential Democratic Caucus chairman Representative
Rahm Emmanuel.
Israel has cultivated close ties with Turkey, particularly with its
military, over the past two decades, and Turkish officials have
reportedly requested its help in lobbying against the resolution.
Against this, Armenian Americans, of whom there are an estimated 1.5
million concentrated mostly in California, face an uphill battle.
"I truly hope that no member of Congress is persuaded to jump ship on
such a critical vote as this simply because of some threats by a
foreign government," said Armenian Assembly Executive Director Bryan
Ardouny. "The government of Turkey and its million-dollar lobbyists
are effectively blackmailing the Congress and the government of the
United States. We should stand up to the threats and demand that
Turkey immediately cease its campaign of misinformation and threats,"
he added.
(Inter Press Service)
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