Knight Ridder Washington Bureau
October 17, 2007 Wednesday
Armenian genocide resolution won’t pass, opponents say
By Michael Doyle, McClatchy Newspapers
WASHINGTON _ Key congressional opponents of an Armenian genocide
resolution claimed Wednesday that they had the votes to kill the
measure, as one-time supporters continued to abandon the
controversial declaration.
With White House and Turkish pressure escalating, lawmakers on both
sides acknowledged momentum had turned against the resolution, which
describes the Ottoman Empire massacres of 1915-1923 as a genocide.
The Capitol Hill endgame could now conclude by week’s end, some House
of Representatives members predict.
"If it were to run today, it would not pass," Rep. John Murtha,
D-Pa., said at a late-morning news conference Wednesday. "I think the
decision has been made by the members; (the resolution supporters)
don’t have the votes."
Murtha chairs the House defense appropriations subcommittee and is
one of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s chief advisers. An adroit vote
counter, he’s been fighting against Armenian genocide resolutions
since he helped turn back a 1987 proposal by a 201-189 vote. He
joined with Florida Democratic Reps. Robert Wexler and Alcee Hastings
in publicly opposing the measure Wednesday.
While not yet conceding defeat, the genocide resolution’s authors
admitted that they were losing altitude. Seven House members withdrew
their co-sponsorship of the resolution on Monday, another four did
the same on Tuesday and additional defections were considered likely.
The genocide resolution had 214 co-sponsors recorded as of late
Wednesday afternoon. With 432 members of the House at present, the
resolution would need at least 217 "yes" votes to pass if everyone
showed up to vote.
"Right now, we’re below the number of co-sponsors needed to assure
passage," Rep. George Radanovich, R-Calif., said Wednesday. "I think
the consensus of the Congress is that it would not pass right now."
Radanovich’s co-author, Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., added that "we’re
working hard to gauge where the members are," and he indicated that a
final answer was likely to become apparent by Friday. The number of
undecided House members, Schiff noted, is "still significant, but
that number is declining."
Of the 214 listed co-sponsors, one died in April, one is a Puerto
Rico delegate whose vote won’t count if it affects the outcome and
one is a lawmaker who has declared it is the "wrong time" for a vote
now. Others are also considered likely to bolt.
"Some of those co-sponsors may not be as solid as we like,"
Radanovich noted. "It’s a little iffy."
The Armenian genocide resolution has taken different forms in
different years. But it primarily exists to put the congressional
imprimatur on the genocide characterization. Turkish officials
dispute the charge, saying that many died on all sides.
This year’s version of the resolution states that "the Armenian
genocide was conceived and carried out by the Ottoman Empire from
1915 to 1923." An estimated 1.5 million Armenians died, the
resolution states, while 500,000 were expelled, resulting in "the
elimination of the over 2,500-year presence of Armenians in their
historic homeland."
The Bush administration, like administrations before it, opposes the
measure as an insult to a key NATO ally. The U.S. occupation of Iraq
has further intensified White House concerns, as upward of 70 percent
of U.S. military cargo flowing into Iraq goes through Incirlik Air
Base in Turkey.
"Congress has more important work to do than antagonizing a
democratic ally in the Muslim world, especially one that is providing
vital support for our military every day," Bush said at a morning
news conference.
Resolution supporters say they won’t seek to have the resolution
brought up for a House vote if they know they’ll lose. Although she
is a resolution supporter who has previously promised to bring the
measure for a vote, Pelosi on Wednesday left the door open for
retreat.
"Whether it will come up or not, what the action will be, remains to
be seen," Pelosi said.