ARMENIAN PAPER DOWNPLAYS POSTPONEMENT OF US GENOCIDE VOTE

Hayots Ashkharh Daily
Oct 19 2007
Armenia

An Armenian newspaper has cautioned the public against dramatizing the
obvious postponement of a vote in the full US House of Representatives
on a draft resolution recognizing mass killings of Armenians in the
Ottoman empire as genocide. The paper explained the postponement by
the present state of US-Turkish relations where both sides are trying
to reach a compromise in the context of a looming Turkish invasion of
northern Iraq. The paper proposed waiting for an opportune time where
the passage of the genocide resolution could be guaranteed in the US
legislature. It also highlighted the long-term interests of parties
involved in securing the ultimate approval of the resolution. The
following is the text of an article by Vardan Grigoryan entitled "The
vote postponement won’t be a tragedy" and published in the Armenian
newspaper Hayots Ashkharh on 19 October:

The results of discussions between the US legislative and executive
authorities in recent days suggest that the final approval of
resolution 106 on the recognition of Armenian genocide in the US
House of Representatives could be postponed for a while.

In our previous analyses we predicted the possibility of such
developments and concluded that the moment of the resolution’s final
approval should absolutely coincide with the developments in Iraq and,
as a result of this, with the crisis period in worsening Turkey-US
relations. It was clear from the beginning that by the vote in the
Foreign Relations Committee [of the US House of Representatives]
US legislators in fact did not satisfy the demands of the Armenian
lobby, but took a preventive measure to restrain Turkey, which has
amassed an army on Iraqi borders.

About a half-month break has been currently announced in the Turkey-US
confrontation over northern Iraq. It is natural that under these
conditions none of the sides will take steps that would aggravate the
situation. Thus, it is not by chance that the number of those who are
in favour of the soonest vote on resolution 106 on the recognition
of Armenian genocide in the House of Representatives, is decreasing.

Does it mean that we should remain as euphoric we were as right after
10 October [the vote in the congressional committee] – waiting for
the victory of the Armenian lobby, or on the opposite – claim that
the Foreign Relations Committee’s approval of resolution 106 on the
recognition of Armenian genocide does not benefit us in any way and
that the US legislature has cheated the Armenian people yet again?

We believe that these two points of view circulating among us
currently are limited and clearly biased. This could either inspire
or dash the hopes of only those who believed up to the present time
that the reason for our success is Armenians’ being a serious factor
in global politics, and those who cannot abandon this point of view,
or on the contrary those who absolutely deny the inevitable positive
outcome of the approval of resolution 106.

Instead of being guided by these superficial and clearly politicized
assessments, it is necessary to precisely calculate the convenient
moment when it will be possible to achieve the approval of resolution
106 in the US House of Representatives. It is clear that the crisis in
US-Turkey relations has objective reasons, which will not disappear
even if the [Turkish] Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan visits
US 100 times. In its turn, the demonstration of Ankara’s frank wish
to move troops into northern Iraq is surely related not only to the
intention to destroy PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party] fighters.

Thus, the problem is whether Turkey, which is threatening a military
invasion, will manage to postpone the implementation of Iraq’s
federalization programme, already approved by the US Senate, and if
yes, by what time? On the other hand, will the US, via creating a real
threat of recognition of Armenian genocide, will manage to gradually
accommodate the stubborn Turkey to the idea of implementating Iraq’s
federalization programme and as its outcome the prospect of the
establishment of an independent Kurdish state.

Temporary "ceasefires" are possible in Turkey-US relations in the
nearest future, but they will inevitably be followed by a deeper
crisis. Thus, from the point of view of the super task of ensuring
the recognition of Armenian genocide there is no need today to be
discontent or impatient. On the contrary – resolution 106 must be put
to the vote when 100 per cent support is ensured for its approval in
the House of Representatives.

It is clear that the forces which ensured the approval of
resolution 106 on the recognition of Armenian genocide in Foreign
Relations Committee of US House of Representatives – primarily, the
Democratic Party – currently are somewhat cautious to take dramatic
steps. They could benefit from the game started against the current
administration. The US Jewish lobby and Israel, which are using it
to lead things towards the establishment of a Kurdish state, have
also found themselves in a beneficial situation. Thus, both of them
need time to ensure a smooth change in US policy and implement the
expected referendum on the issue of Kirkuk’s status.

Afterwards, when the inevitable new crisis of the US policy in Iraq
takes place on one side and in Turkish-US relations on the other
side, it will not be difficult for the Armenian side to again ensure a
prevailing majority in House of Representatives for the final approval
of resolution 106.