CLOSED BORDER ADDS TO TURKISH-ARMENIAN ESTRANGEMENT
By Ruben Meloyan and Satenik Vantsian in Gyumri

Rdaio Liberty, Czech Rep.
Oct 22 2007

Armenia’s border with Turkey has been closed more than 14 years and
there is no indication that will be reopened any time soon. The
Turkish government continues to make the lifting of its economic
blockade, imposed on the small South Caucasus nation out of solidarity
with Azerbaijan, conditional on a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict that would be acceptable to its Turkic ally. The other Turkish
precondition for normalizing relations with Yerevan is an end to the
decades-long Armenian campaign for international recognition of the
1915 mass killings of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey as genocide.

With the Karabakh dispute set to remain unresolved at least until
2009 and the genocide recognition drive gaining momentum in the
United States, there is widespread skepticism about prospects for a
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. That sentiment is now shared even by
a small number of Turkish and Armenian businessmen who have for years
lobbied their governments to break the ice in the long-running feud
with the two neighboring nations.

"Unless the Turkish government shows the political will [to change
its Armenian policy] we will continue to have what we have," says
Arsen Ghazarian, the Armenian co-chairman of the Turkish-Armenian
Business Council (TABC).

The TABC’s Turkish co-chairman, Kaan Soyak, was likewise pessimistic
on the subject when he spoke to journalists in Yerevan last January.

"This was the reason why Turkey closed the border," Soyak said,
referring to the Karabakh conflict. "So unless there is movement or
progress in this area, I don’t see any green light from the Turkish
side."

It is widely agreed that an open border would benefit landlocked
Armenia’s economy and Turkey’s impoverished eastern regions. The U.S.

government and World Bank economists have estimated that it would
considerably accelerate Armenia’s economic growth by reducing
disproportionately high costs of transporting goods to and from the
landlocked country.

However, the positive impact of border opening was downplayed by
a study released two years ago by the Armenian-European Policy and
Legal Advice Center (AEPLAC), a Yerevan-based think tank funded by
the European Union. It concluded that local companies would save as
little as $20 million in transportation expenditures as a result.

Even so, the vast majority of leading Armenian entrepreneurs are in
favor of cross-border commerce with Turkey. They regard Turkey not only
as an alternative transit route but a potential market for Armenian
exports. With the Turkish market closed to Armenian goods at present,
Turkish imports make up the bulk of bilateral trade which is carried
out via Georgia and Iran and estimated at about $100 million a year.

Hrant Vartanian, whose Grand Holding group owns Armenia’s main tobacco
and candy factories, is among the few local businessmen opposed to
an open border. He believes that the closed frontier actually limits
what he sees as negative Turkish influence on Armenia.

"We must be very careful because Turkey would carry out an economic
expansion [into Armenia], destroy the small economy we have created
and get its hands on everything, and eventually we would sign any
document the Turks want," Vartanian tells RFE/RL.

"In general, we would benefit from having open borders with all of
our neighbors. But only if everyone is concerned with business only,"
he adds.

Ghazarian disagrees, saying that Armenian manufacturers have already
successfully competed with cheap Turkish imports. He also argues that
some of them use Turkish raw materials that are made more expensive
by the closed border.

Support for the border’s opening also seems strong among residents
of economically depressed in Armenian villages close to the Turkish
border. One of those villages, Akhurik, stands along a railway that
runs from Armenia’s second largest city of Gyumri to the eastern
Turkish town of Kars. The railway has stood idle ever since Ankara
imposed the blockade.

For Akhurik residents, most of them unemployed, an open border would
mean an opportunity to again work at a nearby railway station that
used to handle Turkish-Armenian passenger and rail traffic. "The
people will have jobs if the railway operates," says one man. "Right
now there are no jobs here. People gather here in the morning, play
cards and go home. God willing, the border will be opened."

"Things will be better if the border is opened," says another. "But
will the Turks agree to open it? That’s the key question."

Another problem is that much of agricultural land in Akhurik
and nearby villages is located within a security zone patrolled
by Russian border guards protecting Armenia’s borders with Turkey
and Iran. Local farmers need special permits to cultivate it. They
complain the procedure obtaining such permits is cumbersome and slow.

Some locals are also worried about Turkish retaliation against the
possible adoption by the U.S. House of Representatives of a resolution
condemning the slaughter of more than one million Armenians as
genocide. In the village of Voskehask one woman went as far to warn
of a Turkish invasion. "We are very scared," she said.

"If the Turks decide to go war, we will be the first to get trampled
underfoot."

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress