CFR
Daily Analysis
If Turkey Invades
October 22, 2007
Author: Lee Hudson Teslik
Turkey removed a major legislative hurdle blocking an invasion into
northern Iraq with an October 18 parliamentary vote authorizing raids
(Turkish Daily News). Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
cautioned that the vote would not necessarily translate to an
invasion, but analysts did not seem too reassured, particularly after
an ambush (BBC) of Turkish troops by Kurdish separatists incited
crisis talks in Ankara on October 21. While U.S. and Iraqi officials
alike warn Turkey not to invade, CFR’s Steven A. Cook says in a
podcast that a controversial vote by a U.S. congressional panel,
deeming the slaughter of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in World War I a
"genocide," may have given Turkey the political catalyst needed to
launch an invasion. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice responded
to the ambush by asking Erdogan to hold off for a few days before
launching any ground attacks, and the New York Times reports Turkish
officials agreed to the request. But the pause did not quell the
drumbeat of "what ifs," and analysts focused their attentions on what
the fallout might be if Turkey follows through with cross-border
raids.
Most experts say the after-effects of an invasion would depend largely
on the scale of the attack and how it is carried out. Iraq’s Foreign
Minister Hoshyar Zebari has indicated he prefers limited air attacks
(Gulf Daily News) on Kurdish targets to full-on land raids. Iraqi and
U.S. leaders say a Turkish ground attack would work to destabilize
Iraq’s north, currently one of the less volatile regions in the
country. In a recent interview with CFR.org, the Kurdish head of
foreign affairs in Iraq expresses hope the issue can be solved
politically. The tension is particularly awkward (FT) for the United
States, which finds itself stuck between a political ally in Turkey
and a tactical ally in Iraq’s Kurds. Given the fragility of the
current situation, Iraq’s foreign minister said in a recent statement
that the effects of an invasion could ripple (VOA) well beyond
northern Iraq, destabilizing the entire region.
Should this happen, one major casualty might be Iraq’s nascent
government, which already struggles to keep order in a country fraught
with ethnic tension. As a new Backgrounder explains, some U.S.
officials are calling for schemes to manage Iraq’s regions
separately – though these plans meet a contentious response from many
Iraqi leaders. CFR President Emeritus Leslie H. Gelb says in an
interview that a federalized Iraqi government remains the best way to
"maintain harmony" among Iraq’s sects. Kurds in recent years have been
able to mediate between Iraq’s Sunni and Shiite factions, and analysts
worry that if they become embroiled in violence, their ability to do
this will be compromised.
It remains to be seen whether Turkey will actually invade Iraq, or if
authorizing raids simply represents a bargaining chip. Turkey has
again called on the U.S. to seize Kurdish separatist fighters, and
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the U.S. needs to do more on
this front. Either way, intense diplomacy has broken out in an effort
to stave off bloodshed. On October 19, Kurdish Iraqis held protests
(NYT) in an effort to coax Turkey not to attack. Meanwhile, the
Economist argues the best hope for preventing a crisis may lie not in
getting Turkey to sympathize with Iraqis or Americans, but in getting
Ankara to better understand its own interests. "With luck," the
article says, Turkey "will recognize that a full-blown invasion of
northern Iraq would damage its interests and further inflame Kurdish
separatists."
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