SAAKHASVILI’S UNEXPECTED DECISION REFLECTS MAJORITY FEARS
Nino Japaridze

Daily Georgian Times
Oct 22 2007
Georgia

Expectations that growing public discontent would force President
Saakashvili to set the parliamentary elections in spring have proven
false. Saakashvili made it clear that the only concession he is going
to make is the reduction of the election threshold from 7 percent
to 5 percent. That is, the government only meets one demand of the
opposition parties. However, unofficial word has it that President
Saakashvili and his closest clique are now thinking to hold the
elections in spring, fearing that their rating may dwindle further
overtime.

Superficial democracy

Saakashvili said that as a democratic president of democratic country
he would do his best not to weaken the opposition for the upcoming
parliamentary elections. Since a one-party, legislative body will be
unfavorable for the country the president expressed his readiness to
reduce the threshold.

However, President Saakashvili did not tell society that
international organizations and institutions were insisting on the
barrier reduction for 5 years. The election threshold in Georgia is
one of the highest in the South Caucasian countries. In order to
enter the Armenian parliament, political parties have to overcome
a 5 percent threshold. The election threshold in Azerbaijan was 6
percent until 2002, when a referendum abolished the proportional
rule of elections. Russia too had a 5 percent election threshold
until recently. The barrier increased to 7 percent for the elections
scheduled on December 2, 2007. Opposition members say that a weak
opposition and a one party local self-government system are the
outcomes of the President’s "democratic" activities.

Just a few hours before President Saakashvili announced his initiative
the majority members kept saying that it was impossible to reduce
the election threshold from 7 percent to 5 percent. They noted that
similar amendments to the democratic election legislation would be
tantamount of returning to Shevardnadze’s era.

The President has come out with another initiative to prolong the term
of parliament to 5 years. He added that he is ready to renounce the
presidential power of dismissing parliament; but he did not explain
the necessity of this change.

Elections in Constitutional Terms

President Saakashvili’s decision was unexpected for opposition
as well as ruling majority members. Tinatin Khidasheli, member of
Republican Party, one of the leaders of the united opposition parties
said that Saakashvili made this concession because he is afraid of
losing the elections.

According to Khidasheli the popularity of the ruling party is dwindling
and Saakashvili fears that the party will not be able to overcome the 7
percent barrier. This is precisely why he lowered the election barrier.

An anonymous source told The Georgian Times that two groups of
ruling majority- young activists of National Movement led by Davit
Kirkitadze and another group associated with influential Liberty- had
different positions about the date of parliamentary and presidential
elections. Hence, there was serious disagreement between these
two forces.

Levan Ramishvili openly announced that the Liberty Institute supports
the idea of conducting the elections in November 2008, as at present,
the ruling party has an advantage over other political forces and
opinion polls suggest the National Movement has a big chance of
sweeping up a majority.

The leaders of the united opposition parties think that by reducing
the election threshold, the president tried to shadow another major
demand of the opposition – to hold the elections within constitutional
terms. The opposition says the main demand of the united opposition’s
meeting on November 2 will concern the date of the elections. The
opposition wants the elections to be held in spring 2008, when the
present Parliament will expire. Opposition members also assume that
if Saakashvili sees that the reduction of the election threshold
does not defuse the political crisis in the country he may set early
presidential elections.

"President Saakashvili may consider that he has to guarantee his second
presidential term as soon as possible, because time works against
him. Another emotional speech from Saakashvili will be necessary for
this initiative. He will address the Georgian nation to decide who
is guilty or innocent in this sharp crisis. He must resign from his
post and nominate his candidacy again," Davit Usupashvili, a leader
of the Republican Party, said

Mikheil Machavariani, Vice-Speaker of Parliament, states that early
parliamentary and presidential elections will not be held. According
to him, holding elections in autumn 2008 instead of spring is
not a law violation, as the Georgian parliament has already made
relevant amendments to the legislation and the opposition’s claims
on constitutional order are groundless.

"Parliamentary and presidential elections will be held in autumn,
2008. This will enable Georgian voters to make decisions regarding
the President and Parliament. Through these amendments, the president
reduced his own term, while Parliament prolonged its own. However,
opposition members have their opinions," Machavariani said in his
interview with Georgian Times.

The vice-speaker did not know about the initiative of Saakashvili to
reduce the election threshold several hours before the meeting between
the President and majority representatives at State Chancellery.

However, according to opposition members, majority representatives who
analyze the situation guess that the ruling party and the President
won’t be able to rule the country for another year and win the upcoming
elections. Thus, like the self-government elections, the authorities
may schedule the presidential and parliamentary elections even earlier
than the opposition expects.

"The interviews of foreign diplomats were published stating that they
are troubled by the situation in Georgia. They propose to launch
a dialogue between opposition and majority. It implies a minimum
change of the power balance. They say that Saakashvili may remain in
his position until January 2009, but the Parliament and government
will be replaced, as they create problems not only for Saakashvili
but foreign partners as well," Kakha Kukava, a member of Democratic
Front, said in his interview with Georgian Times.

The protest action planned for November 2 will show whether the
President’s initiative creates gaps among the united opposition forces
or not. In any case, the idea proposed by the leader could not have
another implication.