TURKEY’S IRAQ THREAT – REAL FEARS ON KURDISH TERROR
By Peter Brookes

Family Security Matters, NJ
Oct 22 2007

"History is littered with the wars which everybody knew would never
happen." – Enoch Powell, British Politician (1967)

This week, the Turkish parliament gave the central government the
go-ahead to undertake cross-border operations into Iraq against the
Kurdish terrorist-separatist group, the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK.)

The good news is that Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Recep Erdogan
insists an attack isn’t imminent. The bad news is that a large-scale
incursion could have serious consequences for U.S. interests in Iraq.

It’s no surprise the Turks are up in arms. PKK forces based in Iraq
have recently attacked both civilian and military targets in Turkey.

PKK rebels reportedly killed at least 15 Turkish soldiers and a
busload of civilians in the last two weeks.

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is under tremendous
domestic pressure to do something about the PKK, which may be
responsible for at least 100 soldiers deaths this year alone.

Indeed, the PKK is responsible for 600 total deaths last year. Since
1984, when the PKK began its armed push for an independent Kurdish
homeland in southeastern Turkey, over 30,000 have died.

And a Turkish incursion into Iraq against the PKK wouldn’t be
unprecedented. Turkish forces have crossed the border a number of
times, sometimes in large numbers, in pursuit of the PKK since the
conflict broke out.

Just this June, Turkey massed ground forces along the Iraqi border,
without the green light it now has from the parliament, after a spate
of PKK killings in Turkey.

For the moment, though, Turkey probably isn’t going to invade. But
in the meantime, the saber rattling serves other purposes.

First, the authorization for the use of force sends a nasty shot
across the bow of both Baghdad and Washington (a NATO ally) to do
something substantive about the PKK, operating out of Iraq.

Ankara understands the last thing Washington or Baghdad wants –
or needs, especially when things seem to be going better in Iraq –
is a problem like Turkish forces pouring across the border.

While U.S. and Iraqi leaders have been cautious about saying what they
might do if Turkey invades, Turkish forces (NATO’s second largest)
could unintentionally attack U.S. troops – or meet fierce resistance
from local Kurds or the Iraqi army.

Such ugly possibilities are a real incentive for the United States
and Iraq to do something. Ankara, is demanding meaningful action and
progress on eliminating the PPK in Iraq , not just more promises.

(Turkey and Iraq recently signed a counterterror cooperation pact.)

In addition, the Turks were furious that our House of Representatives
planned to take up a nonbinding resolution on the massacre of Armenians
in the Ottoman Empire during World War I. Ankara has threatened to
close Incirlik airbase to us – a threat that seems to have lead House
leaders to back off. If Ankara does cut off access, the Pentagon can
reroute the large volume of cargo and fuel bound for U.S. troops in
Iraq – but the possibility of a large-scale military action ratchets
up the pressure astronomically.

Of course, the Turkish threats could be all bluff and bluster,
especially by a ruling party that is looking to boost its sagging
public support with a little jingoism. Then again, why should we take
a chance when so much is at stake?

Now, the PKK isn’t just in Iraq. Ankara has a PKK problem on its
side of the border, too. But Washington and Baghdad must do their
best to close PKK camps in Iraq, eliminating the need for Turkish
cross-border operations.

The United States and the Europeans could also help Turkey with the
PKK through more robust intelligence collection and sharing. (Both
the European Union and the U.S. State Department list the PKK as a
terrorist organization.)

NATO generals can encourage restraint with the powerful Turkish
military brass, too. And Brussels – while doing more itself
to dismantle PKK networks in Europe – should remind Ankara of
repercussions of military action on its long-held goal of joining
the EU.

Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail. But considering Turkish politics,
strained Ankara-Washington relations and the PKK’s relentless terror
campaign, a major Turkish incursion into Iraq could become a reality.

Story originally ran in The NY Post.

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FamilySecurityMatters.org contributing editor Peter Brookes is
a Senior Fellow for National Security Affairs at the Heritage
Foundation and is a member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security
Review Commission. He writes a weekly column for the New York Post and
frequently appears on FOX, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC, NPR and BBC. He is the
author of: "A Devil’s Triangle: Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction
and Rogue States." Mr. Brookes served in the U.S. Navy and is now a
Commander in the naval reserves. He has over 1300 flight hours aboard
Navy EP-3 aircraft. He is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy; the
Defense Language Institute; the Naval War College; the Johns Hopkins
University; and is pursuing a Doctorate at Georgetown University.