What Turkey Wants From Iraq — and the US
By Jürgen Gottschlich in Istanbul
The Turkish parliament has granted Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
the right to order a military strike in neighboring Iraq. It’s
potentially a blank check for a new Iraq war — but for now, the war
drums are a way to underline Turkey’s demands.
The words "War Drums in Ankara " were emblazoned across today’s front
page of Radikal, the center-left Turkish daily. A few hours later, the
Turkish parliament reached a historic decision. For the first time
since the invasion of Cyprus in 1974, the parliament has authorized a
government to send troops into a neighboring country.
With an overwhelming majority of 507 votes (out of 550), the delegates
to the Turkish Grand National Assembly handed the government a blank
check, valid for one year, to order the army to conduct operations in
northern Iraq.
Only 19 parliamentarians from the Kurdish DTP Party voted openly
against the measure. Prime Minister Erdogan had insisted on an open
vote. "The world should see how our parliament feels," was Erdogan’s
official reason, but the real intent was to shine a spotlight on the
Kurdish faction.
The Erdogan government had expected for days that all the remaining
parties would vote in favor of military action. "Our patience has come
to an end," Erdogan said on the day before the vote, summarizing the
general mood. "If Iraq wishes to prevent a Turkish military campaign,
it must take clear action against the PKK," the separatist Kurdistan
Workers Party. Iraqi Kurds, in particular, Erdogan said, must "build a
wall between them and the PKK." The threat of military action
triggered a wave of hectic diplomatic activity in both Washington and
Baghdad.
A Strategic Mess for America
US President George W. Bush has switched to crisis management mode.
Over the weekend, Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelman, a former US
ambassador to Ankara who knows Turkey well, and Assistant Secretary of
State Dan Fried met with senior Turkish government officials. Bush
himself emphasized in public on Wednesday that sending troops to Iraq
would not be in Turkey’s best interest. But the truth is that nothing
could be worse for American interests than a new battle front in the
only stabilized part of Iraq.
Trouble has been brewing for a while, though. In the past few weeks
alone, 30 soldiers have died in attacks and direct military clashes
with PKK militants. "We can no longer tolerate the fact that the
United States and the Kurdish regional government in northern Iraq
have done nothing against the PKK and still want to prevent us from
attacking the PKK camps in northern Iraq ourselves. If this means that
relations with the United States will suffer, then that is something
we will have to accept. We are prepared to pay the price," said
Erdogan.
Ankara’s irritation with the US and the Iraqi government extends
beyond their tolerance of the PKK. Turkey is also incensed over a
decision by the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee,
which, after years of debate, voted to recommend to the US Congress
that it classify the 1915 massacres of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire
as genocide, a term Turkey strictly rejects when it comes to defining
the pogroms of the time.
If the US Congress accepts the resolution, Turkish General Chief of
Staff Yasar Büyükanit said in an interview over the weekend, "military
relations between Turkey and the United States will never be the
same." Washington is apparently taking Ankara’s threat seriously. An
ultra-nationalist party, the MHP, is already calling on the government
to close both the US air base at Incirlik in southern Turkey and its
borders to Iraq.
Both actions would deal a severe blow to US troops in Iraq. The
Pentagon processes close to 70 percent of its entire re-supply effort
through Incirlik, and at least a quarter of the gasoline the US Army
consumes is brought into Iraq on tanker trucks from Turkey. According
to the Wall Street Journal, the Pentagon is already looking into
alternate routes through Jordan and Kuwait, despite the fact that both
would be inconvenient and dangerous.
For Bush, a great deal hinges on whether he manages to convince his
Kurdish allies in northern Iraq to curtail the Kurdish-Turkish PKK’s
attacks in Turkey, at least temporarily. Turkish government spokesman
Cemil Cicek said yesterday: "Our hope is that we will not have to use
this motion, but it is clear that an invasion will follow the next
spectacular attack by the PKK."
What Turkey Might Do
The Turkish army denies having prepared an invasion plan, but three
military options have been discussed in the media. The most
comprehensive is an advance by about 20,000 troops to a line about 40
kilometers (25 miles) across the border, the goal being to create a
buffer zone in northern Iraq designed to prevent PKK militants from
making any further raids inside Turkey. A second option would involve
a temporary invasion to attack PKK camps in northern Iraq and destroy
the guerillas’ logistics, then withdraw to Turkish territory. A third
option would be to amass more troops along the Turkish side of the
border and launch air strikes into northern Iraq.
For now, the war drums are mainly intended to put the necessary weight
behind Turkey’s political demands. Erdogan is aware of the costs of
invading northern Iraq. Ambassadors from the European Union nations
were summoned to the foreign ministry in Ankara this morning to listen
to Turkey’s position.
But the key political meeting will take place on Nov. 5. Erdogan still
plans to sit down on that day with President Bush, although a handful
of hardliners in his own party have pushed him to cancel the meeting.
Officials in Ankara no longer believe that Bush has the power to
dampen congressional enthusiasm for the Armenian genocide resolution,
but Erdogan wants to hold Washington to its promise that the US Army
and Iraqi Kurds will move against the PKK in northern Iraq. If he
returns from Washington empty-handed, though, the prime minister will
hardly be able to hold back the Turkish military.
Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan
Source: ,1518,5 12175,00.html