KAZIMIROV: RESUMPTION OF WAR IN KARABAKH MENACING ENTIRE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

YERKIR
29.10.2007 17:19

YEREVAN (YERKIR) – "Resumption of hostilities in Nagorno Karabakh would
cause more damage than in 1992-1994, since collisions would take place
between well-equipped armies but not guerilla troops. However, neither
of the sides will manage a victorious blitzkrieg within next 4-5 years.

Lingering hostilities will be pernicious for the initiator first of all
and this fact demands the most thorough speculation by the leaders,"
said Vladimir Kazimirov, the Russian mediator on Nagorno Karabakh
in 1992-1996.

The war menaces the entire international community as well, according
to him. "The South Caucasus is not a region deserving indifference. It
won’t be easy to justify a new carnage by Armenian occupation,
since everyone sees Yerevan and Stepanakert insisting on a compromise
solution while Baku stubbornly threatens with war if Armenians don’t
quit all lands including Nagorno Karabakh. Repetition of hostilities
will be perceived as a greater anomaly that the ugly heritage of the
previous war – the seizure of lands," the Russian diplomat said.

"The side that dares to violate the armistice will immediately draw
universal anger for breaking off the OSCE principles and commitments
to the CoE. World powers and influential international organizations,
which have worked for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, will
severely condemn the aggressor.

All will without delay quote Article 9 of the Azerbaijani Constitution
which rejects war as a means of settlement of international
conflicts. Meanwhile, Azeri leaders have already undermined the
authority of their Organic Law by bellicose statements. They don’t
fail to cite the Constitution when commenting on referendum on NK
status but seem to completely forget the above-mentioned article.

Baku will be reminded of its speeding up the armament race and boosting
the defense budget. Total neglect of the agreement on suppression
of border incidents concluded with Armenia and Karabakh by Heydar
Aliyev’s edict will also come to light.

Every day the Azeri Defense Ministry reports violation of the ceasefire
by Armenians. And here a logical discrepancy occurs. If Baku really
wants to suppress incidents, why doesn’t it follow the agreement
officially signed under the aegis of the OSCE? Meanwhile, Yerevan
and Stepanakert have numerously stated support to the agreement.

If Baku thinks this agreement imperfect, it could be amended or
replaced by another one. But Azeris prefer casualties in order to
aggravate tensions and pursue their hysterical propaganda.

Armed revenge can entail grave consequences. Daniel Fried,
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of European and
Eurasian Affairs, once said war would ruin Azerbaijan’s future,"
Vladimir Kazimirov wrote in an article "Is there is a wayout of
Karabakh deadlock?" published by Russia in Global Politics magazine.