ANKARA BEAT CONGRESS; NOW IT’S TAKING ON THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION.
By Shmuel Rosner

Posted Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2007, at 2:36 PM ET

Turkey Threatens To Jump

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan "She’s going to talk
primarily about the U.S.-Turkey bilateral relationship and talk about
the fact that it is a good, strong relationship," claimed State
Department spokesman Sean McCormack in his daily briefing to the
press Monday. "She" is Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice; the "talk"
will happen on her trip to Turkey later this week; and that "strong
relationship" is in trouble. The Turks have recently re-learned that
they can influence America’s decision-makers and policies, and they’re
going to use that power again.

Last month, the Turks and their friends in the administration defeated
Nancy Pelosi, a determined, commanding speaker of the House. The
passage of a resolution that would label the 1915 killing of Armenians
by Ottoman Turks as "genocide" was postponed indefinitely. Pelosi’s
friends on the Democratic side of the House were kind enough to save
her from even greater embarrassment: The sponsors asked her to delay
the vote–and she agreed.

This was a political blunder. The speaker, as committed as anyone to
passing the symbolic legislation, was humiliated by an even stronger
and no less committed Turkish lobby. However–as often happens with
acts of foolishness committed by Congress–the price will be paid
by another branch of government, the executive. The check will be
submitted later this week to its senior representative, Secretary
Rice. A week later, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
will visit an even higher authority, President George Bush, with the
same purpose.

America lost twice in this congressional battle of political will–by
losing the chance to gain the high moral ground by recognizing the
Armenian tragedy and by angering an important ally. Turkey was able to
benefit twice: It defeated the bill, but it was also handed an excuse
to get angry by its earlier passage through the House foreign affairs
committee. Now it can feel justified for its somewhat vindictive mood.

America, as a Pew Global Attitudes Survey showed just last week, is not
the hottest political commodity in Ankara these days. "[N]egative views
of the United States are indeed widespread and growing in Turkey,"
the study concluded. "Only 14% [of Turks] think the U.S. considers
the interests of countries like Turkey when making foreign policy
decisions," the study found. Ankara’s demand that Washington increase
its efforts to curb a wave of terror that originates in the Kurdish
part of Iraq provides the U.S. administration with the perfect
opportunity to show that it does "consider the interests of countries
like Turkey."

The strategic relationship between Turkey and the United States
has a long and complicated history. However, Turkey’s importance to
Washington can be easily, if somewhat simplistically, summed up in
a slogan borrowed from the world of real estate: location, location,
location.

Turkey is a bridge that connects parts of the former Soviet bloc to
Europe and the oil of the East with the needs of the West; it is a
neighbor to Syria and Iran and to the still-struggling Iraq; it is a
candidate for European Union membership that is also well-connected
to the countries of Central Asia. It is a former empire, with all the
pride and tradition of regional responsibility that involves. And
it’s a moderate, democratic, Muslim country. Turkey–all things
considered–is almost too good to be true.

But it now has a problem, which happens to come from an area controlled
by the United States, namely Iraq. The PKK, a Kurdish terror group
dedicated to a radically separatist cause, is harassing and killing
Turkish soldiers and citizens, and Turkey wants it to stop. In the
past couple of weeks, Turkey has muttered threats of invasion, while
maintaining talks with American and Iraqi leaders. But talk will not
be enough. Washington will have to do something about the PKK.

The problem is that the Iraqi government can make promises,
but it can’t deliver on them in the difficult northern terrain
that’s controlled by the Kurds. America might be able to do more,
but it is reluctant to use its already strained forces, and it is
reasonably afraid of destabilizing the only region in Iraq that has
been relatively calm all along.

The Pentagon isn’t happy with Turkey, which could have been far more
helpful in 2003 and since. Diplomats are also worried, as they see
the Islamist government moving away from the West and toward a more
regionally focused strategy. Relations with Israel aren’t as good as
they used to be. Commerce with Syria is well-established. Discussions
with Iran are frequent–though Turkey has no desire to hand Tehran
a victory. Ankara can even maneuver between the United States and
Russia–not that Turkey wants to help Russia, a longtime nemesis.

Turkey, it seems, has more leverage over the United States than
the other way around. It can eliminate crucial supply lines for
American forces in Iraq. It can invade Iraq. It can destabilize
it. These threats were all used by the U.S. administration–backed
up by high-ranking military commanders–to persuade Congress to
back down on Armenian genocide. These same threats will be now used
on the administration and, even more so, against reluctant CENTCOM
officials, to make them invest more effort in solving the problem of
the PKK attacks.

Iraq is your fault, anyway, the Turks say. They were better off
with Saddam Hussein’s regime–or, at least, that’s what they now
claim. Turkey was willing to stay on the sidelines while the United
States was messing with the region, but they will not be the ones to
pay the price. Not for a country that almost passed a bill condemning
their actions nearly 100 years ago.

So, Turkey successfully used its leverage against Pelosi last
month, and now–angrier but also more confident in its power to curb
American will–it is embarking on another such journey. Presumably,
it still needs the United States to deter its powerful neighbors
against possible aggression. But if Turkey was threatened by Iran
or pressured by Russia, does anyone believe that America would let
it fall? Turkey knows that Washington can’t afford such a scenario,
and Washington knows that Turkey knows it. Through the Middle East and
the world, the power of the weaker party is working against countries
allied with the United States. It is the not-so-subtle threat of
"do what I want or I will fall"–or, in the case of Turkey, jump.