WHO WILL BUILD NEW ATOMIC STATION IN ARMENIA?
James Hakobyan

Lragir, Armenia
Oct 29 2007

Passions about the construction of a new nuclear plant are going to
be high. It is known that the Armenian government together with the
Russian government has advanced in talks on cooperation over energy.

The statement by Anthony Godfrey, ex-U.S. charge d’affaires, a.i. to
Armenia, is notable that the United States is interested in the
construction of a nuclear plant in Armenia, and the government is
discussing with specialists the ways of assistance to Armenia. In
fact, Paris has also joined Moscow and Washington. Nicola Sarkosi
said, as Serge Sargsyan had stated after meeting him, his country is
interested in nuclear cooperation with Armenia. The interest of these
three states is explained by the political rather than the economic
importance of the nuclear plant. In other words, the decision that
Armenia must make on choosing a partner to build a nuclear plant is
going to be a political decision. In this sense, there is likelihood
that a pro-Russian decision will be made, especially that the talks
have been lasting long now, not intensively, but the top government
of Armenia has already had two meetings with the head of the Russian
Federal Atomic Energy Agency Sergey Kirienko: when he visited Yerevan,
and when Serge Sargsyan visited Moscow.

On the other hand, however, it is clear that Yerevan cannot refuse
the United States and France plainly, considering the circumstance
of the presidential election. Serge Sargsyan cannot give a distinct
answer about the crucial issue of the nuclear plant at this important
moment because the answer will disappoint the United States and
France. Consequently, on the eve of the presidential election Serge
Sargsyan cannot spoil relations with these countries. Meanwhile,
the nuclear plant will surely cause complexity because the extent
of influence in the South Caucasus largely depends on who controls
the nuclear plant in the region. This is the reason why the West
wants to have the nuclear plant controlled by Russia closed down,
and the reason is not technical or economic. The expectation is to
remove Russia from the construction of the nuclear plant, thereby
reducing an important part of its influence in the region.

In this connection, Armenia is becoming an important factor in the
region for which Washington, Moscow and Paris are competing. In the
first layer of this competition, judging by external signs, at the
moment there is no acuteness this issue of importance is supposed
to have. However, it is perhaps due to the behavior of the Armenian
government which apparently gives a positive answer to all the parties,
expecting from them a positive attitude toward Serge Sargsyan before
the election. As to what Armenia will be doing, it is a matter of
time. After all, over these years the Armenian government has dealt
with the world with this principle, conducting a policy of moment. In
other words, the important national issues need not be resolved, they
should temporize to solve their own problems at the expense of the
national problems. Meanwhile, time solves the national problems. As it
has been the case so far, time solves problems not in the best way,
as it would be desirable. But like Serge Sargsyan is fond of quoting
one of the great men, "The best is the enemy of the good." Therefore,
perhaps, the Armenian government avoids best solutions. But the problem
is that they cannot achieve the good if they avoid the best. All the
past examples are evidence to it, when by a short-term solution Armenia
gave the bulk of its energy sector, transport and industries to Russia,
raising its dependence on this country to perfection. According to
this logic, history may repeat regarding the nuclear plant, especially
that the money allocated for subsidizing gas is finishing, and the
Russians are likely to raise the price.