SAAKASHVILI MAY SUFFER THE SAME LOT AS GAMSAKHURDIA AND SHEVARNADZE
Analytical Department
PanARMENIAN.Net
01.11.2007 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Everything depends on how the demonstration passes,
whether there are any victims or not. On October 17 the opposition
signed a manifesto on unification, which aims at Saakashvili’s
dethronement. The manifesto was signed by 10 oppositional unions;
the Republican, the Conservative, the Labor Party, the Freedom Party,
the Party "Georgia’s Path", People’s Party, Pan-Georgian Movement,
the National Forum Party, "We Ourselves" and Kartuli Dasi".
It should be mentioned that after Georgia proclaimed its independence,
no President has served the Presidential terms till the end. Perhaps,
Saakashvili may also suffer the same lot as Gamsakhurdia and
Shevarnadze. And this time the matter is not in the big financial
inflow of the USA. Some actions of the current Georgian President
are hard to explain, especially when the thing concerns its relations
with Russia. The latest demarche of Tbilisi is again connected with
the Russian peacekeepers in Georgian-Abkhazian conflict zone. The
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs made an announcement which put
the whole blame of the incident on the Georgian side, which perhaps
is not unreasonable. "On October 30 during the realization of one
of missions on patrol of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict zone stated
in the warrant of CIS Collective Forces a group of peacekeepers has
been stopped in the region of Ganardziis-Mukhuri by Georgian spetsnaz
special sub-unit. As the peacekeepers had tried to continue their way,
the Georgian military men took the fire positions, and their commander
Capitan T. Khurtsia prevented the advancement of the Russian APC,
offended the peacekeeping forces threatening to burn the armored car
and open fire on the Russian peacekeepers.
The senior patrol of CIS Collective Forces ordered to arrest and
disarms the Georgian soldiers, who had tried to impede the regular
realization of the mission according to their mandate. It is beyond
doubt that the actions of the Georgian leadership and President
Saakashvili in particular mostly are determined by the internal
political situation of the country. Protests of the opposition against
the policy carried out by the authorities grow and the rating of the
President sinks. As it often happens during the crisis in the country
the leaders of the country try to solve the problems of the country
by distracting people from them with demonstrations. At a time when
mass meetings organized by Georgian opposition are anticipated, it is
not excluded that Saakashvili will apply to more abrupt measures for
creating more complications in Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-Ossetia
conflict zone and further tension in Georgian-Russian relationships",
says RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The opposition wants to see Georgia as a parliamentary-presidential
republic: achieve prescheduled parliamentary elections, win in those
elections, redesign the constitution and deprive Saakashvili from
power. Such variant is quite possible taking into consideration
that Washington continuously its calls for Saakashvili to show some
restraints.
According to the U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary Matthew Bryza,
"There is nothing disapproving in the activeness of opposition’s
activities". It is quite possible that the Assistant Secretary in
Tbilisi Daniel Fried will also say his word regarding the same issue.
The experts have mentioned more than once that in spite of the loyalty
that Saakashvili enjoys, the USA has already started to look for
his substitute.
"Saakashvili’s regime is held up by three columns; revenge towards the
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, anticorruption fight and the US support,"
announced the political scientist Alexander Skakov. By the way,
the last factor is the most important one for the electorate: the
Georgians are paternalists and their need for a protector is quite
big. This is why Washington’s first symptom of rejecting Saakashvili
will be the announcement about the postponement of Georgia’s entrance
to NATO. The European representatives of the alliance already speak
of it, but only the announcement from the US will be the sign for
the opposition. "Technical" training for the action has been held
among the European diplomats as well: the opponents of Saakashvili
gathered the whole diplomatic stuff in the French Embassy in Tbilisi
to give information about the "current situation".
But the most important thing is money. Sponsorship has been offered
by Badri Patarkatsishvili. Lately, the entrepreneur announced that
he is going to pass the copyright of the oppositional TV Channel
"Imedi" belonging to him to the American media-magnate Rupert
Murdock. Patarkatsishvili thinks this is safer: "I want to protect
the TV Channel from pressure.
Journalists and the TV Channel will be more protected, if the Channel
is under the US control. Murdock will be able to secure the freedom
of speech." Meanwhile, according to Ruben Safrastyan, Saakashvili’s
regime exists exceptionally on the US financial aid. "Even if the
opposition manages to depose him, nothing will ever change in Georgia,"
he emphasized.
From: Baghdasarian