AZERI ANALYST: STRATEGIC BALANCE IS CHANGING IN SOUTH CAUCASUS NOT TO RUSSIA’S BENEFIT
Regnum, Russia
Nov 13 2007
The fact that Russia is going to fulfill its obligations ahead of time
and withdraw its troops from Georgia by the end of 2007 can be only
welcomed, well-known Azerbaijani political analyst Rasim Musabekov
told a REGNUM correspondent commenting on the ahead-of-schedule
withdrawal of Russian equipment and troops from the military base in
Batumi and moving it to Gyumri (Armenia), according to a statement by
Chief Commander of the Russian Land Forces, General Alexei Maslov, in
order to "bring up to strength the 102nd Russian military base there."
According to Musabekov, the Russian leadership comprehended that
they have to withdraw the troops from Georgia anyway and there is no
sense in delaying the process. "But the fact that most equipment and
personnel are moved from Batumi to Armenia makes me sorry and even
concerned," he said reminding that apart from that Russia suspended
the CFE Treaty in its territory. "I think that suspension of the CFE
Treaty in its territory will cause questions and steps towards NATO,"
the analyst believes. In this connection, Rasim Musabekov says that
Russia in no way can be interested in the arms race, which became
possible now in neighboring countries. He reminds that before Russia
dropped out from the CFE Treaty, the United States cut short almost
three times its presence in Germany and Germany itself reduced its
Armed Forces almost twice. He added that recent Russia’s steps cannot
but cause adequate response throughout Europe.
Going back to the subject of increasing strength of the 102nd military
base in Gyumri and change of the military situation for Azerbaijan
in this connection, the political analyst noted that no matter how
actively Russia strengthens its base, it will not give any advantage
in South Caucasus to it, even if one considers the Russian and
Armenian forces together. "Two Russian divisions deployed in Batumi
and Akhalkalaki were a kind of fulfilling the role of support for the
Armenian army and now they won’t. So, anyway, the strategic balance
will change not to Armenia and patronizing it Russia’s benefit,
despite the evident increase of the 102nd Russian military base in
Gyumri," the analyst believes. According to him, Azerbaijan, in its
turn, has an opportunity to increase its military potential and at
least make them equal to the general military potential of Armenia.