ICG: STATUS QUO CAN PROVOKE WAR IN KARABAKH

PanARMENIAN.Net
14.11.2007 15:36 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Azerbaijan and Armenia should halt their dangerous
arms race and restrain their belligerent rhetoric and instead renew
efforts to find a negotiated settlement for the Nagorno Karabakh
region, says a report issued by the International Crisis Group.

Nagorno Karabakh: Risking War, the latest report from the International
Crisis Group, examines the dangers of ignoring the conflict both for
the region and for the wider international community.

"Armenia and Azerbaijan have failed to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, even though the framework for a fair settlement has been
on the table since 2005. A comprehensive peace agreement before
presidential elections in both countries in 2008 is now unlikely but
the two sides still can and should agree before the polls to a document
on basic principles, which if necessary clearly indicates the points
that are still in dispute. Without at least such an agreement and while
they engage in a dangerous arms race and belligerent rhetoric, there
is a risk of increasing ceasefire violations in the next few years.

By about 2012, after which its oil revenue is expected to begin to
decline, Azerbaijan may be tempted to seek a military solution. The
international community needs to lose its complacency and do more to
encourage the leaderships to prepare their societies for compromise
and peace," he report says.

"Azeri and Armenian leaders have failed to engage their constituents
in discussion of the merits of peace. The European Union (EU), the
U.S. and Russia have not effectively employed political and economic
pressure for a settlement. The anticipated focus on domestic politics
in Yerevan and Baku as well as several of the Minsk Group countries
in 2008 means that even the incremental diplomatic progress that has
been made could well be lost."

"Oil money has given Azerbaijan new self-confidence and the
means to upgrade its armed forces. It seems to want to postpone
any peace deal until the military balance has shifted decisively
in its favor. Yerevan, which itself has done surprisingly well
economically, has also become more intransigent and increased its
own military expenditures. It believes that time is on its side,
that Nagorno Karabakh’s de facto independence will become a reality
increasingly difficult to ignore. Playing for time is dangerous for
all concerned, however. The riskiest period could be around 2012, when
Azerbaijan’s oil money is likely to begin to dwindle, and a military
adventure might seem a tempting way to distract citizens from economic
crisis. Important oil and gas pipelines near Nagorno Karabakh would
likely be among the first casualties of a new war, something Europe
and the U.S. in particular have an interest in avoiding."

"The wider international community, not just Minsk Group co-chairs,
should coordinate efforts to impress on Baku and Yerevan the need
for progress, specifically early agreement on a basic principles
document. Nagorno-Karabakh needs to be put at the centre of relations
with both countries. The EU special representative in the region should
become more active on the issue, and the EU should use the first
reviews of its action plans with both countries to promote conflict
resolution and the development of transparent, credible institutions
which can underpin peace efforts. Engagement is needed now to avoid
the danger of war in a few years," it reads.

"The international community needs to take the threat of war
seriously," says Magdalena Frichova, Crisis Group Caucasus Project
Director. "The risk of armed conflict is growing, and the dangers of
complacency enormous."

"The international community needs to pressure hard for peace," says
Sabine Freizer, Crisis Group’s Europe Program Director. "Conditionality
should be used with financial aid instruments, and active diplomacy
should focus both sides on the costs of continued stalemate and
confrontation, which far outweigh those of an early compromise."