KARABAKH WAR COULD FLARE AGAIN, WARNS WESTERN THINK-TANK

Radio Liberty, Czech Rep.
Reuters
Nov 14 2007

The 20-year-old conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan could re-ignite
into a war that would threaten the region’s oil exports, an influential
think-tank said on Wednesday.

The Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a report
the fragile truce is under threat because Azerbaijan is using cash
from oil exports to beef up its military and both sides are refusing
to compromise.

A major oil pipeline linking Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea oilfields to the
Mediterranean Sea runs a few dozen kilometers (miles) to the east of
Nagorno-Karabakh. Operated by a BP-led consortium, it will soon pump
one million barrels of oil a day.

"The international community needs to take the threat of war
seriously," said Magdalena Frichova, ICG’s Caucasus Project Director.

"The risk of armed conflict is growing, and the dangers of complacency
enormous."

The report said the riskiest period could be around 2012, when
Azerbaijan’s oil exports are expected to start slowing, possibly
triggering economic problems. "A military adventure might seem a
tempting way to distract citizens from economic crisis," ICG said
in a preface to the report. "Important oil and gas pipelines near
Nagorno-Karabakh would likely be among the first casualties of a new
war, something Europe and the U.S. in particular have an interest
in avoiding."

The ICG report said the United States and European Union should
make resolution of the conflict a condition of their relations with
Azerbaijan and Armenia. It also said Baku and Yerevan should sign
a document of basic principles to establish ground rules for peace
talks. It said this should be done before elections in both countries
next year which could complicate the search for peace.