"COSTS OF CONTINUED STALEMATE AND CONFRONTATION FAR OUTWEIGH THOSE OF AN EARLY COMPROMISE" ICG PREPARED NEW REPORT ON KARABAKH

KarabakhOpen
15-11-2007 14:32:14

Azerbaijan and Armenia should refrain from the use of force, halt
the rise of defense budgets and cease belligerent and provocative
rhetoric directed at the other. Instead they should promote efforts
to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict through talks, holds the
"Nagorno-Karabakh: Risking War" report by the International Crisis
Group. The ICG has studied the risk regarding the practice of ignoring
the conflict. "Oil money has given Azerbaijan new self-confidence and
the means to upgrade its armed forces. It seems to want to postpone
any peace deal until the military balance has shifted decisively
in its favour. Yerevan, which itself has done surprisingly well
economically, has also become more intransigent and increased its
own military expenditure," the report runs.

The international community should take the threat of war seriously,
says Magdalena Fricheva, director of the ICG Caucasus program. She
says the risk of an armed conflict grows, whereas self-assurance is
highly dangerous.

"Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has existed since the end of the First
World War but it was only after the collapse of the Soviet Union in
1991 that the antagonism between Armenians and Azerbaijanis developed
into an all-out war – causing some 22,000 to 25,000 deaths and more
than one million refugees and IDPs in both countries. The war resulted
in occupation of most of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as considerable
adjacent Azerbaijani territory, by ethnic Armenian forces." runs
the report.

"A comprehensive peace agreement before presidential elections in
both countries in 2008 is now unlikely but the two sides still can
and should agree before the polls to a document on basic principles,
which if necessary clearly indicates the points that are still in
dispute. Without at least such an agreement and while they engage
in a dangerous arms race and belligerent rhetoric, there is a risk
of increasing ceasefire violations in the next few years," runs
the report.

New negotiations – the Prague process – have been facilitated since
April 2004 by the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), led by France, Russia and the U.S. can
underlie a peace settlement. The elections in Azerbaijan and Armenia
in 2008 may complicate the political climate in 2008 therefore the ICG
recommends that the parties adopt a document on the core principles
which have not been agreed to before the elections.

The ICG recommends the OSCE Minks Group co-chairs to "raise the
seniority of the co-chair representatives and make resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict a key element of bilateral and multilateral
relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan."

It recommends the EU to increase the role of the Special
Representative for the South Caucasus (EUSR), who should observe the
Minsk process, support direct contacts with all parties, travel to
Nagorno-Karabakh, visit IDPs in Azerbaijan and, with the Commission,
assess conflict-related funding needs; and use European Neighbourhood
Policy (ENP) reviews and funding to promote confidence building,
as well as institution building and respect for human rights and the
rule of law.