ICG WARNS NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT MAY RESULT IN WAR
Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Nov 15 2007
Azerbaijan may be tempted to seek a military solution in the next
decade to end the Armenian occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh if the two
countries fail to resolve the conflict, a respected think tank warned
in a report released yesterday.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) urged the two sides to agree
on basic principles, warning that failure to do so, accompanied by a
"dangerous arms race and belligerent rhetoric," could lead to increased
cease-fire violations in the next five years.
Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan, has been
under the occupation of Armenian troops since early last decade.
Turkey closed its borders with Armenia in protest of the occupation
and says normalization of relations with Yerevan now depends on
a set of factors, including the withdrawal of Armenian troops from
Nagorno-Karabakh. But Armenia has so far shown no sign of willingness
to consider a withdrawal.
The ICG report said Armenia believed that time was on its side and
that Nagorno-Karabakh’s de facto independence will become a reality
increasingly difficult to ignore as time passes, but warned that
"playing for time is dangerous for all concerned."
The riskiest period, it said, could be around 2012, when Azerbaijan’s
oil money is likely to begin to dwindle, at which point a military
adventure might begin to seem a tempting way to distract citizens
from an economic crisis. "Important oil and gas pipelines near
Nagorno-Karabakh would likely be among the first casualties of a
new war, something Europe and the US in particular have an interest
in avoiding."
According to the report, the international community, including the
Minsk Group authorized by the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe (OSCE) to facilitate negotiations, should step up efforts
to prevent this from happening.
"The wider international community, not just Minsk Group co-chairs,
should coordinate efforts to impress on Baku and Yerevan the need
for progress, specifically early agreement on a document of basic
principles. Nagorno-Karabakh needs to be put at the centre of relations
with both countries. The EU special representative in the region should
become more active on the issue, and the EU should use the first
reviews of its action plans with both countries to promote conflict
resolution and the development of transparent, credible institutions
which can underpin peace efforts," the report said. It added,
"Engagement is needed now to avoid the danger of war in a few years."