DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
November 30, 2007 Friday

ANOTHER AZERBAIJANI-ARMENIAN ARMED CONFLICT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY

Azerbaijani Defense Minister, Safar Abiyev, claims that the conflict
will be over Nagorno-Karabakh again. "While the territories of
Azerbaijan remain under Armenian occupation, another war is almost
100% assured," Abiyev said at the press conference in Astana,
Kazakhstan, that followed a meeting of the CIS Council of Defense
Ministers.

Yerevan responded instantly but less aggressively. Defense Minister
Mikael Arutyunjan appraised his Azerbaijani counterpart’s statement
as "overly categoric". "We perceive no alternatives to a peaceful
settlement of the dispute," he said at the same press conference.
"Our presidents are discussing a peaceful settlement of the conflict
over Karabakh." Arutyunjan seemed convinced that his opposite number
>From Azerbaijan had no right making statements such as this. "It is
wrong for defense ministers to make statements such as these when
presidents a.k.a. supreme commanders-in-chief discuss a peaceful
settlement," the Armenian said.

The Azerbaijani-Armenian dispute over the territories each side
claims to own is currently latent, but purely economic reasons may
stoke the fires in no time at all. This conclusion is drawn by
experts of the International Crisis Group whose report
"Nagorno-Karabakh: Threat Of War" was published earlier this month.
Analysts assume that by 2012 or so, by the time Azerbaijani oil and
gas export income went down, official Baku might become desperate
enough to launch a "small victorious war" to distract the population
>From economic problems. Experts urge the international community to
spare neither time nor effort to help the warring sides come up with
a compromise settlement before presidential elections scheduled in
Armenia and Azerbaijan for 2008.

Source: Utro.ru, November 27, 2007