IS RUSSIA PREPARING FOR A COLD WAR?
Translated by Pavel Pushkin

DEFENSE and SECURITY
Source: WPS observer
December 3, 2007 Monday
Russia

Moscow does not wish to militarize its economy but harshly responds
to the West giving up the CFE

Last Friday, President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, signed federal law
"On suspension of the effect of the Conventional Forces in Europe
(CFE) Treaty by Russia." This bill has been debated in Russia for six
months and its passing has been expected in the world. According to the
bill passed by the Duma unanimously, Russia suspends the CFE signed
in Paris on November 19 of 1990. The law will come into effect from
the day of its official publication. It is emphasized that decision
on restarting the effect of the CFE by Russia may also be made by
the president of the country.

Signing of the federal law was preceded by a very long procedure. At
first, on July 14 of 2007, Vladimir Putin signed the decree
"On suspension of the effect of the CFE and related international
agreements by Russia." After that the President submitted a relevant
bill to the Federal Assembly. The Duma passed the bill on November
7 and the Federation Council approved it on November 16.

Even before signing the decree, Putin announced that tests of
new missiles in Russia and the suspension of membership in the CFE
represented a response to the unjustified actions of the partners of
Russia, for instance, the US aimed at deployment of antimissile defense
(AMD) system elements in Europe. Some Western countries requested
Russia not to quit the CFE persistently but Moscow pointed out that
some NATO members including the US did not find time for ratification
of the CFE in 17 years.

Giving up of the CFE by authorities of the country can hardly be
called an election maneuver of the Kremlin that has been trying to
increase the rating of United Russia, the party of power, by the
efforts of the President lately. Moscow is not going to sacrifice
its security and will evidently keep taking further steps for
strengthening this defense although they will hardly be connected with
excessive militarization. Moscow will fully modernize its strategic
nuclear forces simultaneously, prolonging the service life of the
old intercontinental ballistic missiles. Along with this, it pays
special attention to the North Caucasus where almost half of all
combat ready units of the Armed Forces are concentrated. There is also
another aspect proving that Moscow does not wish to slide to hard-line
confrontation with the West. Russia manifests flexibility, for example,
with regard to the problems of American AMD system creation in Europe.

Moscow proposed that the US give up the creation of the third
positional area in the Czech Republic and Poland and use of "its"
object, the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan, instead of this. It
turns out that Americans will not abandon construction of the third
positional area but also wish to use the capabilities of the radar
station in Azerbaijan. Hence, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced,
"What we have received on paper is disheartening." Chief of the General
Staff, Army General Yury Baluevsky, expressed a similar opinion. Last
week, he said that Russia was discontent with the US efforts to
deploy the third positional area of the AMD in Eastern Europe by
any means. According to Baluevsky, Russia cannot accept the stance
of Washington meaning "We build the third positional area and you
Russians join us." Russian-American negotiations with participation
of the Azerbaijani party on creation of alternative AMD systems on
the territory of the South Caucasus will evidently be continued.

Hence, the visit of Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov to
Azerbaijan looks very logical. Despite the militarist statements of
some Azerbaijani politicians and accusations of Baku regarding alleged
military support of the armed forces of Nagorno-Karabakh by Moscow,
Russia develops its military and military technological relations with
Azerbaijan, one of the key countries of South Caucasus. Azerbaijan
has problems, the chief of which is the fact that Azerbaijan is still
in a condition of undeclared war with Armenia, an ally of Russia in
the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Meanwhile, the visit of Serdyukov to Azerbaijan shows that Russia
is developing close partnership with this country, including such
relations in the military field. Meeting with Defense Minister
of Azerbaijan, Colonel general Safar Abiev, the Russian Defense
Minister signed a plan of bilateral cooperation between the defense
ministries of the countries for 2008. Signing of the plan was preceded
by discussion of the development of relations between Moscow and Baku,
cooperation in the military field, training of military personnel,
as well as discussion of military political situation in the region
including the Caspian Sea (organization of joint forces of the
coastal countries).

Azerbaijan, the main hydrocarbon donor of the West in South Caucasus
after Russia, that has announced recently that it is not going to
enter into NATO, posses a significant economic and military interest
for Moscow. The Gabala radar station belonging to Baku is the focus
of this interest.

Thus, of course, there will be no cold war between Russia and the
West in the classic sense but Moscow will do its best to defend
its positions in the regions important for it, first of all, in the
former Soviet republics, by all means, both military and military
diplomatic ones.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress