Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia
Nov 29 2007

PRETENDERS TO THE THIRD POLE

As elements of a tactical game

The more it is becoming obvious that during the February 19
presidential elections the main political struggle will be led by 2
political poles, the more the number of the potential presidential
candidates pretending to the third pole is increasing.
Of course, politics never rules out such possibility; therefore
the desire for becoming a third pole only deserves praise. The whole
problem consists in chances, since the implementation of such a task
makes it necessary to meet several demands. These include:
a) to unite the factions and activists, who are equally against
both the well-known leaders representing the right wing (Serge
Sargsyan) and the Armenian pan-National Movement,
b) to formulate a some specific political platform as an
alternative to the attitudes of both and to fight for the
implementation of such goal,
c) to reveal those social layers of the population which are ready
to support the third pole and to rely on them.
There are currently 10 pretenders intending to run for presidency,
and for some reason, they use the term `third force’ instead of
`third pole’, without going to the heart of the matter. And the
question is: which of the above-mentioned conditions do they meet?
It is obvious that the factions and activists currently considered
as pretenders to the third pole are not united and do not have a
specific political platform; whereas, with respect to specific
political potentials, they are divided into several groups.
The first group includes those factions which have chances to
receive a certain number of votes during the upcoming presidential
elections. They are ARFD, `Rule of Law’ and `National Unity’. But the
whole problem is that these three factions will never unite with one
another, and in case of standing for election on their own they will
be `physically’ unable to become a third pole. It is only possible to
set up smaller unions of tactical character between them and the
other factions. Such unions, however, will be very weak for becoming
a third pole.
The next group includes weaker factions and activists, who are
only capable of using the forthcoming electoral campaign as an
advertisement for their own personality and party. Among them are
Vazgen Manoukyan, Aram Karapetyan, Tigran Karapetyan and a number of
other political figures. They will never make a third pole, whereas
in case of setting up unions of a tactical character they will not
even be weighty enough to become subject to negotiations,
The third group includes `interesting characters’ such as Israel
Hakobkokhyan, and it doesn’t even make sense to discuss those
people’s chances for forming a third pole.
It turns out that the pretenders to the third pole are not fit for
such a serious role in terms of their qualitative and quantitative
criteria. However, since the first and second poles are already
visible, they have to act on behalf of the third pole only.
And the reality is that instead of the third pole, we are dealing
with a long range of pretenders who will rank as the third, fourth,
fifth etc. candidates in the future table, representing the final
results of the electoral campaign.
Therefore, the term third pole can be used exclusively in
quotation marks. i. e. it can be viewed as a multitude of potential
pretenders who can bring certain harm to the main right-wing and
left-wing candidates, without ever influencing the general ratio of
forces.
The only thing left to do is to clarify the following question:
who benefits from the existence of so many multi-colored `third
poles’? Is it the ruling authority or the Opposition leader? Judging
by all, it will be contingent upon the behavior of those who pretend
to the third, fourth or fifth positions. After all, no matter how
much they might wish to keep an equal distance from the main rivals,
the fact that these factions will fight for robbing Mr. Ter-Petrosyan
and his team of the laureates out of the Opposition leader is
definitely advantageous to the pro-Government candidate.
The fact that the great number of candidates pretending to the
third pole will mainly work with the pro-Opposition electorate is no
less important. In this respect, the Brownian movement, emerging
currently, may also disperse the potential pro-Opposition electorate.
Thus, even though from the point of view of political science the
terms `third pole’ or `third force’ may sound strange as tactical
elements of a political campaign, the pretenders to the third pole
will play the role of a mass of `sanitary politicians’ diminishing
the former authorities’ chances for return.

ARMEN TSATOURYAN

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress