THE NEW CAUCASUS EMIRATE?

Russia Profile, Russia
Nov 29 2007

Comment by Gordon M. Hahn
Special to Russia Profile

The problem of radical Islam in Azerbaijan is hardly new or unique for
the Caucasus, even if much of the international media has refused to
cover it. Its origins go back to the late 1980s and early 1990s when
the young, independent Azeri state, under nationalist President Abulfaz
Elchibey, indirectly supported Chechen rebels. Elchibey also allegedly
invited the Muslim guerilla fighter Amir Khattab to the former Soviet
Union in 1992, to help Azerbaijan in its war with Armenia. This lone
anecdote proves that this problem cannot be taken out of the larger
context of the growth of radical Islam in the Caucasus; after becoming
acquainted with Shamil Basayev in Nagorno-Karabakh, Khattab moved his
operation to Chechnya just as international terrorism chose this area
as a battleground for a war with Russia.

It would be wrong to think that this war zone has no impact on the
West, or at least Western spheres of interest. For example, Chechen
jihadists have already turned up in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and
elsewhere fighting Western forces, and a Chechen cell has been tried in
France for plotting terrorist attacks. Contrary to what many analysts
have led Western decision makers to believe, al-Qaida has had Russia
and the rest of the West in its crosshairs. Osama Bin Laden’s first
deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri targeted Russia for jihad over a decade ago,
and Mohamed Atta was on his way to Chechnya before he was redirected
to the United States to plan the Sept. 11 attacks.

The lack of awareness here is in part due to the international
media’s continued neglect of jihadists in the North Caucasus. They
focus instead on so-called "moderate" Chechens that have emigrated
to the West. These very same "moderates" have had no qualms about
serving an underground Chechen government in exile, better described
as a terrorist organization, the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria (ChRI).

This hub of the North Caucasus jihadists’ terrorist network was
responsible for the September 2004 Beslan school hostage-taking
and massacre, the October 2002 Dubrovka theatre hostage-taking and
massacre, the hijacking and destruction of two passenger airliners,
subway suicide bombings, and hundreds of other terrorists attacks
against Russian civilians, officials, police and servicemen.

When international media do devote some attention to the ChRI, coverage
is rather skewed. Take the reporting of the recent declaration by
ChRI "president" and emir Doku Umarov, now referred to by his fellow
jihadists as Abu Usman Doku Umarov. He announced the formation of an
Islamist "Caucasus Emirate" based on Shariah law which encompasses
the entire North Caucasus and declared all those "conducting wars
against Islam and Muslims" anywhere in the world as the emirate’s
enemies. The Emir of the Caucasus Emirate singled out those fighting
its "brothers" in "Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia and Palestine."

Rather than review the long and ignored history of the North Caucasus
separatists’ road to extremism, the few news outlets that bothered to
cover this development, in particular Radio Free Liberty/Free Europe,
played up what I would suggest is a not-so-clever propaganda ploy on
the part of Akhmed Zakayev, the ChRI’s London-based "foreign minister"
and leader of its putatively moderate nationalist and Sufi-oriented
wing. Zakayev claimed that Umarov’s declaration was the result of an
operation by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) to connect
jihadists with the ChRI by manipulating Umarov into declaring a holy
war. This manipulation was the focus of the reporting rather than
the specifics and implications of the declaration.

Not only did this approach downplay a development that has a direct
effect on U.S. and Western security, but the emphasis on Zakayev’s spin
of this turning point conveniently relieved people like Zakayev, other
so-called moderates and their Western supporters of any responsibility
for the jihadists’ terrorist crimes against humanity over recent years,
crimes that do not pale in light of Russian forces’ own atrocities
against Chechens.

The fact is that the establishment of an "Islamic State" in the North
Caucasus and anti-Westernism, in particular anti-Americanism and
anti-Semitism, have been an increasingly vital element of the jihadist
ideology in the Caucasus for years. The formerly nationalist-oriented
separatist-turned-jihadist ChRI began to head in this direction in
the late 1990s. This was not least of all reflected in the Chechen
jihadists’ August 1999 invasion of Dagestan. The growing "jihadization"
of the movement was institutionalized in a July 2002 expanded meeting
of the ruling Madlisul Shura (War Council). The council named Islamist
Abdul-Khalim Sadulaev as President Aslan Maskhadov’s designated
successor. The jihadist mandate expanded with Shamil Basayev’s
establishment of combat jamaats across the North Caucasus in 2003
and 2004 and the creation by former Emir Abdul-Khalim Sadulayev of
Dagestan and Caucasus Fronts under the ChRI’s command in May 2005.

As these developments unfolded, most of the ChRI’s moderate wing was
isolated far away from the North Caucasus, having found welcoming
refuge in places like Washington, London, Istanbul, Baku, Qatar, and
the United Arab Emirates. There, they tainted themselves by continuing
to serve in the ChRI underground government, effectively alongside or
even under the ministrations of Basayev, who organized suicide attacks
on rock concerts, subways and passenger airliners, hostage-takings
of women and children at Beslan and Dubrovka, and often unprovoked
killings of officials, police officers and servicemen in the North
Caucasus over the last few years.

Moreover, there is nothing new in Umarov’s recent declaration. As
a field commander under late Chechen President Aslam Maskhadov, he
proposed expanding the Chechen militants’ jihad to Siberia and the
Far East three years ago. Maskhadov’s successor, Sadulayev (from March
2005 to June 2006) openly declared the goal of establishing a Shariah
law-based Islamic state across the Caucasus and liberating all Muslims
under Russian rule. This would include not only Muslim-dominated
Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, and territories once under the 15th century
Siberian khanate, but also any city with large or even small Muslim
populations such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.

In January 2006, Basayev announced that in spring a "Great Majlis," or
assembly, would be convened to anoint an "Imam of the North Caucasus"
and a "Shura of Caucasian Ulema" that would enforce compliance with
Shariah law. Sadulayev promptly issued decrees on forming the Shura
of Caucasian Ulema. After Umarov’s assumed leadership, he promptly
created Urals and Volga Fronts. In a statement this past summer, he
identified himself as the "Emir of the Caucasus" in one of his decrees.

For years the ChRI’s chief jihadist ideologist, Movladi Udugov,
and the leaders of combat jamaats loyal to the ChRI have spewed
forth a torrent of radical jihadist, anti-Western, anti-American,
and anti-Semitic propaganda. The ChRI website closely associated
with Zakayev has repeatedly posted jihadists pronouncements from
ChRI-affiliated Dagestani Shariat Jamaat and other jamaats across
Russia, including announcements of successful "mujahedeen operations"
in which they kill civilian officials, police, and servicemen of the
various siloviki.

Umarov’s recent declaration of a Caucasus Emirate and jihad against
the West is merely the official declaration of a policy long in
action. Only Islamist and Western supporters of the ChRI refused to
acknowledge this.

To be sure, some may be comforted by the fact that, at present,
the Caucasus jihadists’ ambitions far outstretch their resources.

However, demographic projections suggest that Russia’s ethnic Muslims
will outnumber the non-Muslim Slavic and non-Muslim non-Slavic
groups by mid-century. Moreover, political and economic stability
in the mid- to long-term is still no guarantee in Russia. The region
could be shaken by a decline in oil and gas prices, a poorly planned
re-democratization or foreign machinations. Since Russia is home to
a large stockpile of chemical, biological, radioactive, and nuclear
weapons, Umarov’s jihadist threat could someday shake the world and
should shake the makers of Russia policy in the West.

Gordon M. Hahn is Senior Researcher at the Monterey Terrorism Research
and Education Program and the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence
Studies, Akribis Group and Adjunct Professor, Graduate School of
International Policy Studies, Monterey Institute for International
Studies.

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