AZERBAIJAN PLANNING TO PULL CHESTNUTS OUT OF THE FIRE WITH OTHERS’ HANDS
By R. Hayrapetian, Moscow
AZG Armenian Daily
05/12/2007
"Nezavisimaya Gazeta" ("The Independent Newspaper"), Russia,
recently published an article entitled "Great Azerbaijan: Reality or
Illusion?". The author represents the present state of Azerbaijan
(which is expected to have $10 billion income in 2010 due to
oil-dollars) and focuses his attention upon the main targets of
Azerbaijani foreign policy, especially its relationships with Iran.
The matter is that Azerbaijan, developing the economy and improving
the life conditions due to the oil incomes, has started an active
propaganda campaign on the so-called "Southern Azerbaijan". More and
more officials in Baku come to think that their Iranian "compatriots"
have to start a fight for national liberation and independence. It
comes out that the strife for freedom of the Armenians of Karabakh
is separatism, and that of the "Iranian Azeris" – fair struggle.
The Azeris hope the integrity of Iran to be shattered by the
USA. In case the Americans start an armed campaign against Iran,
an unprecedented opportunity of establishing the state of "Great
Azerbaijan" will occur. In that case the "Great Azerbaijan" will be
able to solve the Karabakh issue "automatically".
However, "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" is rather doubtful about the realization
of such plans. First of all the Azerbaijani politicians do not take
into consideration that the political and territorial integrity of Iran
is ensured by a well-founded political and religious ideology. Citizens
of all nationalities in Iran are integrated into the social life and
are included in the country’s political, economical, military and
religious elite. At least by now, the "Iranian Azeris" have never
had inclinations for separatism.
It also seems unlikely that Azerbaijan will meet the commitment
not to lend its territory for military operations to a third-party
states, adopted on the Black Sea States Summit. Even today it is
hard to conceal the presence of US military in Azerbaijan – about two
thousand American army specialists have reconstructed and modernized
nine airports and two radar stations in Azerbaijan. Most likely,
the Gabala radar station is to be handed to USA in 2010. Shortly,
everything is being prepared for Azerbaijan to become a platform for
USA forces in the campaign against Iran. Even in case Azerbaijan tries
to avoid it, the United States have a number of means of pressure upon
the Azeri authorities, such as the upcoming presidential elections
and the Karabakh issue.
It is rather dubitable whether Azerbaijan shall profit from serving the
purposes of the USA, as, in case a war is unleashed, Baku and its oil
wells shall become one of the hottest targets of the Iranian missiles.
"The United States shall hardly pay as much attention to the protection
of Azerbaijan’s borders as they do to the protection of their own,"
writes "Nezavisimaya Gazeta".
The victory of the United States in that war with Iran is also
uncertain. The American campaign in Iraq was a sheer failure, and
the campaign in Iran is not promising to be better somehow, as Iran
is much more powerful than Iraq was. The war against Iran may become
a terrible explosion in the Middle East, and the USA shall have to
try hard to get out of its ruin.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
