Kommersant, Russia
Dec 6 2007

The Predecessor Operation

// Armenia’s first president wants to become the third one
Thursday is the deadline for Armenian presidential candidates to file
documents to confirm their nomination ahead of the February 19
election. But the campaign is already on in this country. The
election is most likely to turn into a battle between Prime Minister
Serzh Sarkisyan and Armenia’s first President Levon Ter-Petrosyan.
Kommersant’s Vladimir Solovyev goes to Yerevan to meet the two
candidates and evaluate their political potential.
Candidates Ready

The last stage of the presidential race is finishing in Armenia on
Thursday. The country’s Central Election Commission will stop
receiving documents from presidential candidates at 6 o’clock in the
evening. After that the election authority will start registration.
All candidates are going to be endorsed by January 20 next year when
the election campaign will officially start.

Six would-be presidential candidates have filed applications with the
commission by Wednesday. They are chairman of the National Democratic
Union Vazgen Manukyan, one of the leaders of the Dashnaktsutyun
Armenian Revolution Federation Vagan Ovannisyan, the People’s Party
leader Tigran Karapetyan, the National Unity party leader Artashes
Gegamyan, Armenia’s first President Levon Ter-Petrosyan and incumbent
Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan.

The campaign is already in full swing even though the official start
will be announced a month and a half later. Prime Minister Serzh
Sarkisyan and former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan are the most
potent candidates, according to Armenian analysts. `If the election
is held tomorrow, Ter-Petrosyan is going to have much more chance to
win than Sarkisyan,’ Alexander Iskanderyan, direction of the Caucasus
Media Institute, told Kommersant. `But the election is on February
19, not tomorrow, so everything may change.’

Messrs. Ter-Petrosyan and Sarkisyan realize that it will come down to
a political duel, and they are now active gathering their existing
resources.

Kocharyan’s Plan

Armenian authorities started forging Serzh Sarkisyan’s victory at the
start of the year. Armenian President Robert Kocharyan, who is
stepping down in February, made it clear that he would not breach the
Constitution and look for ways to stay in power for the third term.
He also said that he was not going to hand over to a random person
and named former Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisyan to be his
successor. Like the outgoing president Mr. Sarkisyan comes from the
restive region of Nagorno Karabakh. Following the sudden death of
previous Prime Minister Andranik Markaryan in March Mr. Sarkisyan
left the post of the defense minister to take over the government. He
also became the leader of the country’s ruling Republican party. The
Republicans then won a sweeping victory, and Mr. Kocharyan publicly
named the prime minister as the would-be president.

No one had any doubt that Serzh Sarkisyan is able to occupy the
presidential seat easily until former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan
mentioned his presidential ambitions in October. Mr. Ter-Petrosyan
has not been out policies since February 1998 when she had to step
down in a row with then Prime Minister Robert Kocharyan and Interior
Minister Serzh Sarkisyan over the Nagorno Karabakh peace settlement
plan. Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s time in office is described in print
media and on television as `the disastrous 90s’ that the country must
not go back to. The Voice of Armenia newspaper has come the greatest
lengths in denouncing plans of the former president. When the former
Armenian leader called on international organizations and foreign
embassies to help insure a fair vote the publication called his a
`supergrass’ who wants to `cast a shadow on the upcoming election’.

Meanwhile, those businessmen who threw their support behind Mr.
Ter-Petrosayn were raided by tax authorities. Khachatur Sukisyan, one
of the country’s richest men, was the first one. Afterwards, the tax
agency visited the office of regional TV station Gala in the city of
Gyumri. A few days after the TV channel had televised the former
president’s speech the company received with tax claims of 26 million
drams (around $85,000). Gyumri’s city hall, meanwhile, demanded that
the company’s broadcast equipment be taken down from the city TV
tower.

Serzh Sarkisyan, however, says that he does not consider
Ter-Petrosyan to be a strong rival. `You know, he’s not acting
against me,’ the prime minister told Kommersant. `He may think that
he’s against me, but I think he is doing it for himself. I have no
bad feeling towards him.’ Asked for the reason for a sweeping
anti-Ter-Petrosyan campaign in Armenian media Mr. Sarkisyan said: `I
would not like to discuss the election with Russian media. It’s our
domestic issue, and we shouldn’t make a problem out of it. We’ll
manage on our own. You are not informed enough and say incorrect
things.’

Ter-Petrosyan’s Game

With no media or administrative resources at his disposal Levon
Ter-Petrosyan has adopted the tactic of street campaigning. He held
consultations with Armenian opposition attracting some 20 parties and
movements to his side. They include well-known politicians such as
the Armenia People’s Party leader Stepan Demirchyan, son of the
parliament’s speaker Karen Demirchyan who was killed in a terrorist
attack in the parliament in October 1999, and the Democratic Party
leader Aram Sarkisyan, brother of another 1999 terrorist attack
victim, the late Vazgen Sarkisyan.

The former president and his allies have settled on Freedom Square in
downtown Yerevan before the Opera Theater. Two opposition rallies
took place there in October and November drawing 15,000 to 25,000
people, according to different estimates. All the demonstrations
ended with Mr. Ter-Petrosyan’s blistering criticism of incumbent
authorities. Another rally in the Armenian capital is slated for
December 8 when the candidate promised he would unveil his election
program which has so far been kept in secret.

The ex-president’s allies say they have given him their support out
of moral reasons and have claims for any positions in the government
should Mr. Ter-Petrosyan wins the election. `We don’t need any
posts,’ Ararat Zurabyan, leader of the Armenian National Movement
party, told Kommersant. `We want to give a future to this country. We
need to balance our foreign policy. We’re always either pro-West or
Russia’s stronghold.’

Apparently, foreign policy will be a burning issue on the election
trail as the country has been living in the blockade since it gained
independence. Borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan are locked and the
country’s only link to the outside world is the railroad through
Georgia and the country’s only airline company Armavia.

Mr. Zurabyan is sure that the situation can get right only with the
help of Levon Ter-Petrosyan. Stepan Demirchyan feels the same way. He
told Kommersant that he is supporting the former president because no
one else can beat the ruling duo Kocharyan-Sarkisyan.

However, opposition leaders may have rallied together behind the
first president for yet another reason. Robert Kocharyan said that he
would not breach the Constitution to stay for another term but he was
not going to become a `young pensioner’ either. The statement left
everyone guessing in what capacity he may stay in politics. Mr.
Kocharyan’s close ally, Parliament Speaker Tirgran Torosyan,
mentioned briefly in October that the president may become the prime
minister. The statement caused a quite a debate. All the more, Robert
Kocharyan pushed through a Constitution referendum in 2005 which the
majority voted to cut the president’s powers to give more the prime
minister. Opposition cannot be happy about the idea of Messrs.
Sarkisyan and Kocharyan swapping places since the combination can be
repeated again and again.

Vladimir Solovyev