Hayots Ashkharh , Armenia
Dec 8 2007

IS RAFFI HOVHANNISYAN THE MAIN SURPRISE OF THE ELECTIONS?

Recently independent center of investigations `Sociometer’
convened a survey of public opinion before the election marathon. The
results of the survey are not subject to publication and are
envisaged for the so-called `service’ use.
Anyhow, director of `Sociometer’ Aharon Adibekyan made certain
observations regarding the starting status quo.

`We don’t observe this investigation as a public opinion survey.
We have studied the public opinion, but from a quite different
viewpoint. This is the reason why I don’t want to mention any
concrete percentages or numbers. The time will come for it. One thing
is clear some people want to disorientate the public opinion, in the
sense that press and the political discussions are fixed on one of
the candidates Levon Ter-Petrosyan, whereas the processes extend
around other directions.
And in the near future they will be conditioned by the
developments around quite another person – Raffi Hovhannisyan, who
over again failed to be registered as a presidential candidate. That
is to say it is not essential, who will `Heritage’ inherit their
votes. They have certain rating and it is not clear what will be the
orientation of their electorate.
Of course we can draw conclusions even at present, whom R.
Hovhannisyan will inherit his votes, but in my view we shouldn’t run
ahead of the events. The fact is Raffi Hovhannisyan’s decision to
support this or that candidate can mix the playing cards of many
figures. Even the second and maybe the third stage of the elections
depend on the before mentioned circumstance.
The second stage is extremely important because all this will make
sense only if there is a possibility of second stage. Otherwise it is
simply senseless to make efforts to attract the electorate. `
‘What do the surveys conducted by your center show? Is there any
probability of the second stage or everything will be finished by one
stage?’
‘The chances of the second stage always exist. It can be due to
bad campaign, an unsuccessful speech, provocation, or an unpredicted
event, that can bring to the fluctuation of the ratings.
We can’t make precise predictions only two months before the
elections, such as – what will the pre-election developments be like,
to what extent can the candidates manage to attract the hesitating
electorate and gain their trust.
The nominations have just come to an end. Society has just started
to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the 9 candidates
having submitted claims for presidency. That is why our surveys are
of an investigational nature.’
‘Can we say that the issue of the first place is in essence solved
and that the candidates are fighting for the second place?’
‘Yes we can. But I would try to avoid making premature
predictions, because certain `extraordinary’ events are also possible
before the elections – beginning from provocations to serious
confrontations. Anything can happen. That is why we make our focal
predictions 10 days or 2 weeks before the elections, when we can
consider all the factors and give a clear picture of the distribution
of the votes.’
`Can the weather conditions have any influence on the
demonstrations?’
‘ The experience of the previous years displays that the weather
conditions don’t have significant influence on the demonstrations.
Those who don’t participate in the elections, they will not go to the
square independent of the weather conditions. Those who do
participate they will definitely go to the square no matter what the
weather is like, because they think it is their civil obligation and
they will participate in pre-election events, be it as it may.’
‘Before the start of the demonstration season the `generals’ of
Armenian Pan National Movement promised that in autumn we will
eyewitness a `very interesting’ epoch forming events, which will
abruptly change the logic of the elections. Do you think these hopes
were justified?’
‘We have heard such announcement many times. This is Ashot
Manucharyan’s favorite technology `the time will come and we will say
everything…’ Vazgen Manukyan, Aram Sargsyan, Aram Karapetyan, have
also announced many times that `spring will come and we will stage
revolution, autumn will come and we will show our power…’ But as we
can see nothing happens.
The pre-election situation is quiet, people are not `hungry’ and
not that much angry to go out to the streets. There is no social base
to start a large – scale movement. Today it is difficult to persuade
people to go `towards the barricades.’

LILIT POGHOSYAN